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Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: Assessing the impact of fire management strategies

Author

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  • Piñol, Josep
  • Castellnou, Marc
  • Beven, Keith J.

Abstract

A simple simulation model has been used to investigate whether large fires in Mediterranean regions are a result of extreme weather conditions or the cumulative effect of a policy of fire suppression over decades. The model reproduced the fire regime characteristics for a wide variety of regions of Mediterranean climate in California, France and Spain. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used to assess the possibility of multiple model parameter sets being consistent with the available calibration data. The resulting set of behavioural models was used to assess uncertainty in the predictions. The results suggested that (1) for a given region, the total area burned is much the same whether suppression or prescribed fire policies are used or not; however fire suppression enhances fire intensity and prescribed burning reduces it; (2) the proportion of large fires can be reduced, but not eliminated, using prescribed fires, especially in areas which have the highest proportion of large fires.

Suggested Citation

  • Piñol, Josep & Castellnou, Marc & Beven, Keith J., 2007. "Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: Assessing the impact of fire management strategies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 34-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:207:y:2007:i:1:p:34-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jennifer L. Pierce & Grant A. Meyer & A. J. Timothy Jull, 2004. "Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7013), pages 87-90, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Curt & Thibaut Frejaville, 2018. "Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 472-488, March.
    2. Varela, Elsa & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Soliño, Mario, 2014. "Understanding the heterogeneity of social preferences for fire prevention management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 91-104.
    3. Piñol, Josep & Espadaler, Xavier & Pérez, Nicolás & Beven, Keith, 2009. "Testing a new model of aphid abundance with sedentary and non-sedentary predators," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2469-2480.
    4. Lasse Loepfe & Jordi Martinez-Vilalta & Josep Piñol, 2012. "Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 693-707, December.
    5. Turley, Marianne C. & Ford, E. David, 2009. "Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 1968-1983.
    6. Mitchell, Stephen & Beven, Keith & Freer, Jim, 2009. "Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3259-3270.

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