Effects of fishing and predation in a heavily exploited ecosystem: Comparing periods before and after the collapse of groundfish in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada)

Mass-balance models, using inverse methodology, were applied to the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for periods preceding and following the collapse of groundfish stocks in this area. These models were used to determine how the ecosystem changed, and whether its structure and functioning were affected by the observed changes in key species between the two time periods. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by piscivorous groundfish and small-bodied forage species (e.g., capelin, herring, and shrimp) in similar proportions to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group, large-bodied demersal predators that has not been replaced 12 years after the cessation of heavy fishing, and left marine mammals such as seals and cetacea as top predators of many species (especially fishes) during the mid-1990s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. A change in the prey of seals from juvenile cod to capelin occurred between the models for the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s consistent with observed shifts in the abundance of the two prey species between the two time periods. These major changes were accompanied by a decrease in total catches and a transition in landings from long-lived and piscivorous groundfish toward planktivorous pelagic fish and invertebrates.