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A distributed-delay model to predict ageing and survival rates of adults of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in granaries filled with wheat

Author

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  • Jian, Fuji
  • Jayas, Digvir S.
  • White, Noel D.G.
  • Fields, Paul G.

Abstract

A time-varying distributed-delay model simulating effects of multifactors was developed. Prediction of the ageing rate and survival distribution of adults of the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in various environments found in wheat-filled granaries was conducted as an example to illustrate the application of this developed model. Published adult mortalities, determined at different temperatures, relative humidities, and food sources, were directly used to find the average ageing rate and family of cumulative function of adult mortality. The developed model could predict the adult survival rate at constant or transient temperatures with different relative humidities. This model could also simulate the effect of adult acclimation to their environment when they experience temperature and moisture fluctuations inside granaries. To validate the developed model, the simulation results were compared with available experimental data from the literature. There was no difference between predicted and measured mortalities in two granaries in which the mortalities were determined in a 4-month experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian, Fuji & Jayas, Digvir S. & White, Noel D.G. & Fields, Paul G., 2007. "A distributed-delay model to predict ageing and survival rates of adults of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in granaries filled with wheat," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 412-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:200:y:2007:i:3:p:412-420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian, Fuji, 2021. "A novel model to quantify ages of organisms and predict development time distribution of their growth stages," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    2. Jian, Fuji & Jayas, Digvir S. & White, Noel D.G. & Smith, E.A., 2008. "Numerical analysis and parameter estimation technique for insect population redistribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 47-56.

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