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The effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony on interest rates and stock prices

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  • Gordon, Matthew V.
  • Lunsford, Kurt G.

Abstract

We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest movements in interest rates and generate negative co-movement between interest rates and stock prices. Testimonies not associated with MPRs have similar but weaker effects. Second-day MPR testimonies cause the smallest movements in interest rates and generate no co-movement between interest rates and stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon, Matthew V. & Lunsford, Kurt G., 2024. "The effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony on interest rates and stock prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:235:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524000211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111537
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    1. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurodollar future; Event study; Forward guidance; S&P 500; Treasury note;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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