IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v234y2024ics0165176523004962.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informality and development: The nonlinear effect

Author

Listed:
  • Fotié, Andrée Kenne
  • Mbratana, Taoufiki

Abstract

This paper explores how the level of development affects informality. We find for 150 countries from 1996 to 2017 that the long-run relationship between the size of the informal economy and GDP per capita follows an inverted-N pattern. This nonlinear effect is heterogeneous across the conditional distribution of informality, and robust to different income-country groups and alternative specifications. Additionally, we identify rule of law and financial development as powerful determinants of informality. In terms of policy, the formation of reforms to the informal sector should take into account the country's level of development.

Suggested Citation

  • Fotié, Andrée Kenne & Mbratana, Taoufiki, 2024. "Informality and development: The nonlinear effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0165176523004962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523004962
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111470?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    2. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    3. Machado, José A.F. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2019. "Quantiles via moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 145-173.
    4. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    6. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    7. Dong Frank Wu & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development," IMF Working Papers 2019/048, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bittencourt, Manoel & Gupta, Rangan & Stander, Lardo, 2014. "Tax evasion, financial development and inflation: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 194-208.
    9. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    10. Gareth Lui-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2019. "Informality and Bank Stability," Working Papers 201903, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    11. Norman V. Loayza, 2016. "Informality in the Process of Development and Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 1856-1916, December.
    12. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 292-308.
    13. David Powell, 2022. "Quantile regression with nonadditive fixed effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2675-2691, November.
    14. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    15. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 275-363.
    16. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    17. Roberto Dell'Anno, 2022. "Theories and definitions of the informal economy: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1610-1643, December.
    18. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    19. Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2014. "A structural econometric analysis of the informal sector heterogeneity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 175-191.
    20. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    21. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, January.
    22. Liu-Evans, Gareth & Mitra, Shalini, 2019. "Informality and bank stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 122-125.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Ho, Thuy Tien, 2025. "Understanding the informal economy: The influence of political ideology during financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boikos, Spyridon & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Voucharas, Georgios, 2022. "Financial development, reforms and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    3. Bilgili, Faik & Soykan, Erkan & Dumrul, Cüneyt & Awan, Ashar & Önderol, Seyit & Khan, Kamran, 2023. "Disaggregating the impact of natural resource rents on environmental sustainability in the MENA region: A quantile regression analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dimitrios Bakas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2024. "Labour reallocation and unemployment fluctuations: A tale of two tails," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3444-3468, July.
    6. Ceyhun Elgin & Muhammed Burak Sezgin, 2017. "Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 55(4), pages 261-289, December.
    7. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2023. "Measuring heterogeneity in hospital productivity: a quantile regression approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 15-43, February.
    8. Luc Jacolin & Joseph Keneck Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2021. "Informal sector and mobile financial services in emerging and developing countries: Does financial innovation matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2703-2737, September.
    9. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    10. Denis Chetverikov & Bradley Larsen & Christopher Palmer, 2016. "IV Quantile Regression for Group‐Level Treatments, With an Application to the Distributional Effects of Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 809-833, March.
    11. Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Shadow Economies Around the World: Evidence from Metropolitan Areas," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 301-322, April.
    12. Roberto Dell'Anno, 2022. "Theories and definitions of the informal economy: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1610-1643, December.
    13. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    14. Xin Liu, 2024. "A quantile-based nonadditive fixed effects model," Papers 2405.03826, arXiv.org.
    15. Joseph Keneck-Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2019. "Shadow economy and educational systems in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1467-1478.
    16. Besstremyannaya, Galina & Golovan, Sergei, 2021. "Measuring heterogeneity with fixed effect quantile regression: Long panels and short panels," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 70-82.
    17. Mazhar, Ummad & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2017. "Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 89-103.
    18. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    19. Ben-Salha Ousama & Zmami Mourad, 2020. "The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in the MENA region," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(3), pages 45-67, August.
    20. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informality; Level of development; Nonlinearity; Panel data; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0165176523004962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.