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Macroeconomic volatility at the zero lower bound: Evidence from the OECD

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  • Swaminathan, Anthony

Abstract

This paper tests whether volatility in inflation and GDP growth was higher at the ZLB across the period from 1990:1 to 2019:3 as predicted by conventional models. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, volatility was not higher at the ZLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Swaminathan, Anthony, 2021. "Macroeconomic volatility at the zero lower bound: Evidence from the OECD," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:204:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109877
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 257-272.
    2. Davide Debortoli & Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2020. "On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 141-170.
    3. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2015. "Endogenous volatility at the zero lower bound: implications for stabilization policy," Research Working Paper RWP 15-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    5. Daisuke Ikeda & Shangshang Li & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "Testing the Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan and the United States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 250-286, April.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. John H. Cochrane, 2018. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 113-226.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; Endogenous volatility; Unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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