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The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles at zero lower bound: Revisiting the evidence

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  • Caraiani, Petre
  • Călin, Adrian Cantemir

Abstract

We revisit the results in Gali and Gambetta (2015) by reestimating their time-varying Bayesian VAR model including the shadow rate of Wu and Xia (2016). We found some significant differences when looking at the results during and in the aftermath of the crisis: with the shadow rate, the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices becomes negative. There is also a much lower positive impact of monetary policy shocks on bubbles when using the shadow rate. The impact is lower by almost three percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles at zero lower bound: Revisiting the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 55-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:55-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.05.014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2019. "Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Petre Caraiani & Adrian C. Călin & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Monetary policy and bubbles in US REITs," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 675-687, June.
    5. Wang, Shengquan & Chen, Langnan, 2019. "Driving factors of equity bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 304-317.
    6. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Caraiani, Petre & Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2020. "Credit policy and asset price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    9. Caraiani, Petre & Cǎlin, Adrian Cantemir, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock market bubbles: International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2020. "Housing markets, monetary policy, and the international co‐movement of housing bubbles," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 365-375, May.
    11. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Joshua Nielsen, 2023. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles in an Emerging Country: The Case of India," Working Papers 202305, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.
    13. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 365-381, July.
    14. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Liang, Chao & Cao, Yang, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the price bubbles in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Lee, Changju & Ku, Seungmo & Cho, Poongjin & Chang, Woojin, 2019. "Explaining future market return and evaluating market condition with common preferred spread index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 921-934.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; VAR; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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