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Tail relation between return and volume in the US stock market: An analysis based on extreme value theory

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  • Longin, François
  • Pagliardi, Giovanni

Abstract

Using daily data of the S&P 500 index from 1950 to 2015, we investigate the relation between return and transaction volume in the statistical distribution tails associated with booms and crashes in the US stock market. We use extreme value theory (peaks-over-threshold method) to study the extreme dependence between the two variables. We show that the extreme correlation between return and volume decreases as we consider larger events in both the left and right distribution tails. From an economic viewpoint, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the activity of market participants during extreme events. Our empirical result is consistent with the economic explanation by Gennotte and Leland (1990) of extreme price movements based on misinterpretation of trades by market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Longin, François & Pagliardi, Giovanni, 2016. "Tail relation between return and volume in the US stock market: An analysis based on extreme value theory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 252-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:252-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Kallal, Hedi & Longin, Francois, 1996. "Minimal returns and the breakdown of the price-volume relation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-269, February.
    2. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    4. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    5. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    6. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Chigozie Utazi & Edmore Ranganai & Chibuzor Nnanatu, 2023. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk in BRICS Economies," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 251-290, April.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad & Bouri, Elie & Boako, Gideon & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Tail dependence in the return-volume of leading cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Chan, Stephen & Chu, Jeffrey & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2022. "An extreme value analysis of the tail relationships between returns and volumes for high frequency cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Longin, François, 2018. "Financial market activity under capital controls: Lessons from extreme events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 10-13.
    5. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An analysis of the return–volume relationship in decentralised finance (DeFi)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-254.
    6. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2018. "An application of extreme value theory to cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 109-111.
    7. Hu, Haiqing & Chen, Di & Sui, Bo & Zhang, Lang & Wang, Yinyin, 2020. "Price volatility spillovers between supply chain and innovation of financial pledges in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 397-413.
    8. Hong Qiu & Genhua Hu & Yuhong Yang & Jeffrey Zhang & Ting Zhang, 2020. "Modeling the Risk of Extreme Value Dependence in Chinese Regional Carbon Emission Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Saralees Nadarajah & Emmanuel Afuecheta & Stephen Chan, 2021. "Dependence between bitcoin and African currencies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1203-1218, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme value theory; Peaks-over-threshold method; Return–volume dependence; Stock market volatility; Extreme correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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