IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v145y2016icp252-254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tail relation between return and volume in the US stock market: An analysis based on extreme value theory

Author

Listed:
  • Longin, François
  • Pagliardi, Giovanni

Abstract

Using daily data of the S&P 500 index from 1950 to 2015, we investigate the relation between return and transaction volume in the statistical distribution tails associated with booms and crashes in the US stock market. We use extreme value theory (peaks-over-threshold method) to study the extreme dependence between the two variables. We show that the extreme correlation between return and volume decreases as we consider larger events in both the left and right distribution tails. From an economic viewpoint, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the activity of market participants during extreme events. Our empirical result is consistent with the economic explanation by Gennotte and Leland (1990) of extreme price movements based on misinterpretation of trades by market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Longin, François & Pagliardi, Giovanni, 2016. "Tail relation between return and volume in the US stock market: An analysis based on extreme value theory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 252-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:252-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176516302300
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    2. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Kallal, Hedi & Longin, Francois, 1996. "Minimal returns and the breakdown of the price-volume relation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-269, February.
    5. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    6. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    7. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    8. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Chigozie Utazi & Edmore Ranganai & Chibuzor Nnanatu, 2023. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk in BRICS Economies," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 251-290, April.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad & Bouri, Elie & Boako, Gideon & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Tail dependence in the return-volume of leading cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Chan, Stephen & Chu, Jeffrey & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2022. "An extreme value analysis of the tail relationships between returns and volumes for high frequency cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Longin, François, 2018. "Financial market activity under capital controls: Lessons from extreme events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 10-13.
    5. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An analysis of the return–volume relationship in decentralised finance (DeFi)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-254.
    6. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2018. "An application of extreme value theory to cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 109-111.
    7. Hu, Haiqing & Chen, Di & Sui, Bo & Zhang, Lang & Wang, Yinyin, 2020. "Price volatility spillovers between supply chain and innovation of financial pledges in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 397-413.
    8. Hong Qiu & Genhua Hu & Yuhong Yang & Jeffrey Zhang & Ting Zhang, 2020. "Modeling the Risk of Extreme Value Dependence in Chinese Regional Carbon Emission Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Saralees Nadarajah & Emmanuel Afuecheta & Stephen Chan, 2021. "Dependence between bitcoin and African currencies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1203-1218, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chan, Stephen & Chu, Jeffrey & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2022. "An extreme value analysis of the tail relationships between returns and volumes for high frequency cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    3. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Longin, François, 2018. "Financial market activity under capital controls: Lessons from extreme events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 10-13.
    4. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An analysis of the return–volume relationship in decentralised finance (DeFi)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-254.
    5. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    6. Koubaa, Yosra & Slim, Skander, 2019. "The relationship between trading activity and stock market volatility: Does the volume threshold matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 168-184.
    7. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Ning, Cathy & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2009. "Extreme return-volume dependence in East-Asian stock markets: A copula approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 202-209, December.
    9. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    10. Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.
    11. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Jondeau, E. & Lai Tong, C., 1997. "Effets “volume”, volatilité et transmissions internationales sur les marchés boursiers dans le G5," Working papers 42, Banque de France.
    12. Aragon, George O. & Dieckmann, Stephan, 2011. "Stock market trading activity and returns around milestones," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 570-584, September.
    13. Jiang Wang, 2002. "Trading Volume and Asset Prices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 299-359, November.
    14. Li, Tao, 2007. "Heterogeneous beliefs, asset prices, and volatility in a pure exchange economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1697-1727, May.
    15. Ting Zhang & George J. Jiang & Wei‐Xing Zhou, 2021. "Order imbalance and stock returns: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 2809-2836, June.
    16. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    17. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the volatility-volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data," Working Papers hal-04140997, HAL.
    18. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.
    19. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Wu, Chunchi, 1999. "The intraday relation between return volatility, transactions, and volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 375-397, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme value theory; Peaks-over-threshold method; Return–volume dependence; Stock market volatility; Extreme correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:252-254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.