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Forecasting Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) spreads with newswire messages: Evidence from European countries under financial distress

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  • Apergis, Nicholas

Abstract

This study explores the forecasting performance of newswire messages, revealed by newspaper articles, for CDS. Five European countries with sovereign debt problems, daily data spanning the period 2009–2012, and ARIMA and ARIMAX modeling support the superiority of the ARIMAX model.

Suggested Citation

  • Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Forecasting Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) spreads with newswire messages: Evidence from European countries under financial distress," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 92-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:92-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.08.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    3. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
    4. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    5. Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    7. Philipp Mohl & David Sondermann, 2013. "Has political communication during the crisis impacted sovereign bond spreads in the euro area?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 48-61, January.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Consoli & Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli & Elisa Tosetti, 2022. "Neural forecasting of the Italian sovereign bond market with economic news," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 197-224, December.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Christina Erlwein-Sayer, 2018. "Macroeconomic News Sentiment: Enhanced Risk Assessment for Sovereign Bonds," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, December.
    4. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    5. Consoli, Sergio & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo & Tosetti, Elisa, 2021. "Emotions in macroeconomic news and their impact on the European bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2016. "Media sentiment and CDS spread spillovers: Evidence from the GIIPS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 50-59.
    7. Hazar Altınbaş & Vincenzo Pacelli & Edgardo Sica, 2022. "An Empirical Assessment of the Contagion Determinants in the Euro Area in a Period of Sovereign Debt Risk," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 339-371, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Newswire messages; CDS; European countries; Sovereign debt problems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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