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Estimating average treatment effect by model averaging

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  • Gao, Yichen
  • Long, Wei
  • Wang, Zhengwei

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to use a model average method to improve the estimation performance of Hsiao et al. (2012) panel data approach for program evaluation. Instead of using the two-step model selection strategy which chooses one best model according to a criterion such as AIC or AICC, we average over a set of candidate models. Simulation results show that the model average estimator exhibits smaller estimation errors in post-treatment prediction than AIC or AICC method.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Yichen & Long, Wei & Wang, Zhengwei, 2015. "Estimating average treatment effect by model averaging," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 42-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:135:y:2015:i:c:p:42-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.08.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Cheng Hsiao & H. Steve Ching & Shui Ki Wan, 2012. "A Panel Data Approach For Program Evaluation: Measuring The Benefits Of Political And Economic Integration Of Hong Kong With Mainland China," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 705-740, August.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
    4. Bai, ChongEn & Li, Qi & Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Property taxes and home prices: A tale of two cities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Viana de Carvalho & Ricardo Masini & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2016. "The perils of Counterfactual Analysis with Integrated Processes," Textos para discussão 654, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. Wang, Weiwei & Zhang, Qi & Zhang, Xinyu & Li, Xinmin, 2021. "Model averaging based on generalized method of moments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Average treatment effect; Counterfactual; Model average;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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