IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v86y2013icp148-155.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development

Author

Listed:
  • Mattila, Tuomas
  • Koskela, Sirkka
  • Seppälä, Jyri
  • Mäenpää, Ilmo

Abstract

There is an urgent need to develop scenarios and roadmaps for a more sustainable future than where business-as-usual is heading. This paper addresses the use of sensitivity analysis for analyzing environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) models in order to develop cost-effective and comprehensive scenario building. Main components of resource use, emission intensity and final demand are extracted from the complete network of interactions contained in the input–output tables of the national accounts. The method is demonstrated using a detailed Finnish EEIO-model (ENVIMAT). Based on the results, only 0.3% of the 23 103 interactions were found to have a significant effect on Finnish greenhouse gas emissions. The same parameters were also relevant for waste generation and land use, but not for gross domestic product. The identified main components were tested by structural decomposition. Actual development of greenhouse gas emissions from 2002 to 2005 was compared to that predicted by updating only the identified components. Based on the results, the development of greenhouse gas emissions could be predicted with high accuracy using only the identified main components. Generalizing the results, sensitivity analysis can assist in identifying the main components to be included in future scenarios for sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattila, Tuomas & Koskela, Sirkka & Seppälä, Jyri & Mäenpää, Ilmo, 2013. "Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 148-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:86:y:2013:i:c:p:148-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800912004624
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beddington, Sir John, 2011. "The future of food and farming," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 1(2), pages 1-5.
    2. M. Lenzen & D. Moran & K. Kanemoto & B. Foran & L. Lobefaro & A. Geschke, 2012. "International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations," Nature, Nature, vol. 486(7401), pages 109-112, June.
    3. ten Raa,Thijs, 2006. "The Economics of Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521602679, October.
    4. Tukker, Arnold & Poliakov, Evgueni & Heijungs, Reinout & Hawkins, Troy & Neuwahl, Frederik & Rueda-Cantuche, José M. & Giljum, Stefan & Moll, Stephan & Oosterhaven, Jan & Bouwmeester, Maaike, 2009. "Towards a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1928-1937, May.
    5. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834, October.
    6. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    7. Lenzen, Manfred & Murray, Joy & Sack, Fabian & Wiedmann, Thomas, 2007. "Shared producer and consumer responsibility -- Theory and practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 27-42, February.
    8. Ahlroth, Sofia & Hojer, Mattias, 2007. "Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 722-731, September.
    9. Thomas Wiedmann & Richard Wood & Jan Minx & Manfred Lenzen & Dabo Guan & Rocky Harris, 2010. "A Carbon Footprint Time Series Of The Uk - Results From A Multi-Region Input-Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 19-42.
    10. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    11. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 1998. "Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 307-324.
    12. Johan Rockström & Will Steffen & Kevin Noone & Åsa Persson & F. Stuart Chapin & Eric F. Lambin & Timothy M. Lenton & Marten Scheffer & Carl Folke & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Björn Nykvist & Cynthia , 2009. "A safe operating space for humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 472-475, September.
    13. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    14. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The Future of the Environment: Ecological Economics and Technological Change," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195085747.
    15. Lenzen, Manfred, 2003. "Environmentally important paths, linkages and key sectors in the Australian economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-34, March.
    16. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740, October.
    17. Soimakallio, Sampo & Kiviluoma, Juha & Saikku, Laura, 2011. "The complexity and challenges of determining GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions from grid electricity consumption and conservation in LCA (life cycle assessment) – A methodological review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 6705-6713.
    18. Wood, Richard & Lenzen, Manfred, 2009. "Structural path decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 335-341, May.
    19. Kerstin Cuhls & Ahti Salo, 2003. "Technology foresight-past and future," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 79-82.
    20. Harry C. Wilting, 2012. "Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis In Mrio Modelling; Some Empirical Results With Regard To The Dutch Carbon Footprint," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 141-171, September.
    21. Koskela, Sirkka & Mäenpää, Ilmo & Seppälä, Jyri & Mattila, Tuomas & Korhonen, Marja-Riitta, 2011. "EE-IO modeling of the environmental impacts of Finnish imports using different data sources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2341-2349.
    22. Leontief, Wassily, 1970. "Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 262-271, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Changbo & Malik, Arunima & Wang, Yafei & Chang, Yuan & Pang, Mingyue & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Understanding the resource-use and environmental impacts of bioethanol production in China based on a MRIO-based hybrid LCA model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Majumdar, Devleena & Kar, Saibal, 2017. "Does technology diffusion help to reduce emission intensity? Evidence from organized manufacturing and agriculture in India," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 30-41.
    3. Yongyou Nie & Yunhuan Gao & He He, 2022. "Modelling Structural Effect and Linkage on Carbon Emissions in China: An Environmentally Extended Semi-Closed Ghosh Input–Output Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Ling Li & Ling Tang & Junrong Zhang, 2019. "Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO 2 Emission Intensity in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Ramos-Carvajal, Carmen & Lasarte-Navamuel, Elena & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2024. "Some considerations on assessing the importance of a coefficient," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Zhu, Qingyuan & Xu, Chengzhen & Pan, Yinghao & Wu, Jie, 2024. "Identifying critical transmission sectors, paths, and carbon communities for CO2 mitigation in global supply chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Zhong, Zhangqi & Li, Li & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Uncovering household indirect energy-saving responsibility from a sectoral perspective: An empirical analysis of Guangdong, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 451-461.
    8. Piñero, Pablo & Heikkinen, Mari & Mäenpää, Ilmo & Pongrácz, Eva, 2015. "Sector aggregation bias in environmentally extended input output modeling of raw material flows in Finland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 217-229.
    9. Li Li & Yalin Lei & Chunyan He & Sanmang Wu & Jiabin Chen, 2017. "Study on the CO2 emissions embodied in the trade of China’s steel industry: based on the input–output model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 989-1005, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne Owen & Richard Wood & John Barrett & Andrew Evans, 2016. "Explaining value chain differences in MRIO databases through structural path decomposition," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 243-272, June.
    2. Misato Sato, 2014. "Embodied Carbon In Trade: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 831-861, December.
    3. Oshita, Yuko, 2012. "Identifying critical supply chain paths that drive changes in CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1041-1050.
    4. Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhao, Yuhuan & Su, Bin & Zhang, Yongfeng & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya & Li, Hao, 2017. "Embodied carbon in China’s foreign trade: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 492-510.
    5. Jonas Bunsen & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2022. "An Introductory Review of Input-Output Analysis in Sustainability Sciences Including Potential Implications of Aggregation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Zhiyong Yang & Wenjie Dong & Jinfeng Xiu & Rufeng Dai & Jieming Chou, 2015. "Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Cellura, Maurizio & Longo, Sonia & Mistretta, Marina, 2012. "Application of the Structural Decomposition Analysis to assess the indirect energy consumption and air emission changes related to Italian households consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1135-1145.
    8. Liu, Hongtao & Xi, Youmin & Guo, Ju'e & Li, Xia, 2010. "Energy embodied in the international trade of China: An energy input-output analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3957-3964, August.
    9. Xia, Yan & Fan, Ying & Yang, Cuihong, 2015. "Assessing the impact of foreign content in China’s exports on the carbon outsourcing hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 296-307.
    10. Hanspeter Wieland & Stefan Giljum & Nina Eisenmenger & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Martin Bruckner & Anke Schaffartzik & Anne Owen, 2020. "Supply versus use designs of environmental extensions in input–output analysis: Conceptual and empirical implications for the case of energy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 548-563, June.
    11. Ling Li & Ling Tang & Junrong Zhang, 2019. "Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO 2 Emission Intensity in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Zhang, Youguo, 2010. "Supply-side structural effect on carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 186-193, January.
    13. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Zhong, Zhangqi & Li, Li & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Uncovering household indirect energy-saving responsibility from a sectoral perspective: An empirical analysis of Guangdong, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 451-461.
    14. Ala-Mantila, Sanna & Heinonen, Jukka & Junnila, Seppo, 2014. "Relationship between urbanization, direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and expenditures: A multivariate analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 129-139.
    15. Anke Schaffartzik & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Nina Eisenmenger, 2015. "Raw Material Equivalents: The Challenges of Accounting for Sustainability in a Globalized World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-26, April.
    16. Taherzadeh, Oliver, 2020. "Locating pressures on water, energy and land resources across global supply chains," SocArXiv ue45p, Center for Open Science.
    17. Kucukvar, Murat & Cansev, Bunyamin & Egilmez, Gokhan & Onat, Nuri C. & Samadi, Hamidreza, 2016. "Energy-climate-manufacturing nexus: New insights from the regional and global supply chains of manufacturing industries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 889-904.
    18. Meng, Jing & Zhang, Zengkai & Mi, Zhifu & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Zheng, Heran & Zhang, Bo & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo, 2018. "The role of intermediate trade in the change of carbon flows within China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 303-312.
    19. Uduak Akpan & Ovunda Green & Subhes Bhattacharyya & Salisu Isihak, 2015. "Effect of Technology Change on $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in Japan’s Industrial Sectors in the Period 1995–2005: An Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(2), pages 165-189, June.
    20. Kagawa, Shigemi & Nakamura, Shinichiro & Inamura, Hajime & Yamada, Masato, 2007. "Measuring spatial repercussion effects of regional waste management," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 141-174.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:86:y:2013:i:c:p:148-155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.