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Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive

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  • Sigel, Katja
  • Klauer, Bernd
  • Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

Abstract

Uncertainty is highly relevant in environmental policy because on the one hand environmental problems are regarded as complex and require a long-term perspective and on the other hand the knowledge available to practitioners and policy makers alike is often fragmentary and not systemised. One key issue arising from this is the challenge to develop scientific decision support methods that are capable of dealing with uncertainty in a systematic and differentiated way, integrating scientific as well as practical knowledge. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for perceiving and describing uncertainty in environmental decision-making. The conceptual framework consists of a general definition of uncertainty along with five complementary perspectives on the phenomenon, each highlighting one specific aspect of it. By using the conceptual framework, decision-makers are able to reflect on their knowledge base with regard to its completeness and reliability and to gain a broad picture of uncertainty from various standpoints. The theoretical ideas presented here are complemented by two empirical studies looking at how uncertainty is dealt with in the implementation process of the EU Water Framework Directive. The rather abstract differentiations are illustrated by a number of examples in the form of interview statements and excerpts from the directive and official EU documents.

Suggested Citation

  • Sigel, Katja & Klauer, Bernd & Pahl-Wostl, Claudia, 2010. "Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 502-510, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2010:i:3:p:502-510
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Beate & Klauer, Bernd & Schiller, Johannes, 2013. "Prospects for sustainable land-use policy in Germany: Experimenting with a sustainability heuristic," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 213-220.
    2. Sabrina Kirschke & Jens Newig, 2017. "Addressing Complexity in Environmental Management and Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Klauer, Bernd & Manstetten, Reiner & Petersen, Thomas & Schiller, Johannes, 2013. "The art of long-term thinking: A bridge between sustainability science and politics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 79-84.
    4. Fischer, Manuel, 2015. "Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 520-528.
    5. Römer, Benedikt & Reichhart, Philipp & Kranz, Johann & Picot, Arnold, 2012. "The role of smart metering and decentralized electricity storage for smart grids: The importance of positive externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 486-495.
    6. Gómez-Limón, José A. & Martín-Ortega, Julia, 2011. "Agua, economía y territorio: Nuevos enfoques de la Directiva Marco del Agua para la gestión del recurso/Water, Economics and Territory: New Approaches in the Water Framework Directive for the Manageme," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 65-94, Abril.
    7. Xavier Romão & Esmeralda Paupério, 2016. "A framework to assess quality and uncertainty in disaster loss data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1077-1102, September.
    8. Marcelo Coelho & Cristovão Vicente Scapulatempo Fernandes & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2019. "Uncertainty analysis in the detection of trends, cycles, and shifts in water resources time series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2629-2644, June.
    9. Tobias Holmsgaard Larsen & Thomas Lundhede & Søren Bøye Olsen & Brian H. Jacobsen, 2021. "Incorporating time lags and uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis of water quality improvements – a case study of Limfjorden, Denmark," IFRO Working Paper 2021/01, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    10. Xiaohui Ding & Chen Zhou & Weizhou Zhong & Pingping Tang, 2019. "Addressing Uncertainty of Environmental Governance in Environmentally Sensitive Areas in Developing Countries: A Precise-Strike and Spatial-Targeting Adaptive Governance Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-34, August.
    11. Julio Berbel & Julia Martin-Ortega & Pascual Mesa, 2011. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Water-Saving Measures for the Water Framework Directive: the Case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in Southern Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 623-640, January.
    12. Cai, Yanpeng & Yue, Wencong & Xu, Linyu & Yang, Zhifeng & Rong, Qiangqiang, 2016. "Sustainable urban water resources management considering life-cycle environmental impacts of water utilization under uncertainty," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-40.
    13. Maartje Bodde & Karin Van der Wel & Peter Driessen & Arjan Wardekker & Hens Runhaar, 2018. "Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.

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