Divergent outcomes of large-scale land transactions in Ethiopia: A quantitative comparative analysis

Large-scale land transactions (LSLTs) for agricultural development represent changes in inherently complex and coupled socio-ecological systems. This is particularly so in lower- and middle-income countries where land is the principal basis of livelihoods and generates substantial but diverse ecosystem services, and tenure arrangements affect both livelihoods and ecosystem provision simultaneously. Despite decades of research on LSLTs, a significant epistemological gap persists between broad quantitative analyses and in-depth case studies, and systematic empirical research investigating the joint economic, social, and environmental outcomes remains rare. We analyze 24 LSLTs in Ethiopia, selected carefully to represent variations in LSLT characteristics and local contexts. Across these 24 cases, outcomes diverge markedly from the pessimistic conclusions identified in much existing empirical research. Considering such diversity, we classify LSLT outcomes into four categories: synergy, tradeoff, struggle, and failure. We then perform qualitative comparative analysis to examine the specific conditions that correlate with these outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond monoconsequential predictions for land tenure changes and of more comparative analysis of LSLTs to attend to variations across social, economic, and environmental outcomes considered in relation to each other. An integrated epistemological approach, our study shows, is necessary to understand the diverse pathways through which land tenure changes drive human-nature interactions and affect the broader landscape of coupled socio-ecological systems.