Towards a sustainable mobility lifestyle: Exploring the flight to rail shift through model-based behavioural change scenarios

Despite the importance of behavioural changes for transitioning to low-carbon societies, quantitative modelling has mainly focused on technological changes, overlooking the complex social dynamics of lifestyle shifts. In this study, we build a coupled system dynamics model linking a passenger transport model with an exploratory endogenous behavioural change model. We use this model and a scenario discovery methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate sensitivity analysis to explore pathways for climate mitigation in the transport sector by shifting from flights to trains. Our model reveals several scenarios for mitigation, each requiring different policy combinations and social efforts. We found that personal environmental values significantly impact the speed of behavioural change and its contribution to emissions reduction by 2050, though policy incentives such as educational and economic policies could also help in their absence. Based on four pathways with distinct exogenous drivers, we present four storylines illustrating possible social contexts for a shift from air to train transport: Smart Policy Mix (1), Fast Adaptation (2), Luck in Misfortune (3), and Overcoming the Value-Action Gap (4). The scenarios reveal different situations for achieving mitigation objectives, varying in efficiency, desirability, and feasibility, while also exposing sociopolitical trade-offs. Our work contributes to the field of social and exploratory modelling, offering new insights into the social dynamics of sustainability transformations.