IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v68y2023ics1062940823001092.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation risk and stock returns: Evidence from US aggregate and sectoral markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chiang, Thomas C.
  • Chen, Pei-Ying

Abstract

This study examines the relation between inflation risk and stock returns and finds a negative relation in US aggregate data. A comparable result is found in other G7 economies. Introducing the inflation-induced equity market volatility as an incremental variable consistently produces a negative effect on stock returns. The same finding holds true for monetary policy uncertainty, which also produces a negative relation. Ignoring these two elements will produce a biased estimator of inflation’s effect on stock returns. Testing of sectoral stocks in the US market indicates that most sectors find a significant number of sectors exhibit negative inflation coefficients, confirming the Fama proxy hypothesis. The exception is the energy sector that presents a positive sign, indicating a hedging capacity against inflation. Including the interacting term between a change in monetary policy uncertainty and lagged equity market volatility, the evidence suggests an enhanced negative effect on stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiang, Thomas C. & Chen, Pei-Ying, 2023. "Inflation risk and stock returns: Evidence from US aggregate and sectoral markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823001092
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101986
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823001092
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101986?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arzu Ozoguz, 2009. "Good Times or Bad Times? Investors' Uncertainty and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4377-4422, November.
    2. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    3. Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-1218.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Engle, Robert F., 2010. "The intertemporal capital asset pricing model with dynamic conditional correlations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 377-390, May.
    6. Chiang, Thomas C. & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi, 2015. "The intertemporal risk-return relationship: Evidence from international markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 156-180.
    7. Jonathan Brogaard & Lili Dai & Phong T H Ngo & Bohui Zhang, 2020. "Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1737-1780.
    8. Li, Lifang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "An analysis of inflation and stock returns for the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-532, December.
    9. Solnik, Bruno & Solnik, Vincent, 1997. "A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 289-301, December.
    10. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iqbal, Najaf & Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Alsagr, Naif, 2024. "Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    3. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February.
    4. Mohammed M Elgammal & David G McMillan, 2014. "Value premium and default risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(1), pages 48-61, February.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Akanni, Lateef O., 2020. "New evidence for the inflation hedging potential of US stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2021. "Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty: Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 9486, CESifo.
    7. Tiwari Aviral Kumar & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wohar Mark E., 2019. "Are stock returns an inflation hedge for the UK? Evidence from a wavelet analysis using over three centuries of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Chiang, Thomas C., 2022. "The effects of economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk and pandemic upheaval on gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    10. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-367.
    11. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2006. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments:Â A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    13. Konrad Farrugia & Janice Duca & Peter J. Baldacchino & Simon Grima, 2021. "The Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns in a Small Island State: An Analysis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 11(2), pages 51-78.
    14. Jiang, Fuwei & Kang, Jie & Meng, Lingchao, 2024. "Certainty of uncertainty for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    16. Claudiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Papers 1603.01231, arXiv.org.
    17. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Yuriy Kitsul & Jamil Rahman & Beth Anne Wilson, 2024. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty and U.S. equity returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1401, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Chi-Ming Ho, 2023. "Research on interaction of innovation spillovers in the AI, Fin-Tech, and IoT industries: considering structural changes accelerated by COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    19. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Tang, Yi, 2017. "Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 471-489.
    20. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return; Inflation; Monetary policy uncertainty; Fisher hypothesis; Equity market volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823001092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.