IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v44y2018icp167-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Chaoqun
  • Wang, Hailong
  • Cheng, Fengchao
  • Hu, Duni

Abstract

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Hailong & Cheng, Fengchao & Hu, Duni, 2018. "How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:167-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940817302450
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2018.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-341.
    2. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    4. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
    5. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Asset Prices with Heterogeneity in Preferences and Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 519-580.
    6. Berkman, Henk & Dimitrov, Valentin & Jain, Prem C. & Koch, Paul D. & Tice, Sheri, 2009. "Sell on the news: Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 376-399, June.
    7. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    8. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    10. Snehal Banerjee & Ilan Kremer, 2010. "Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1269-1302, August.
    11. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Wu, Lue, 2015. "‘Nobody is perfect’: Asset pricing and long-run survival when heterogeneous investors exhibit different kinds of filtering errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 303-333.
    12. Suleyman Basak & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behaviour in the Presence of Money Illusion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 914-936.
    13. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    14. Shi, Lei, 2016. "Consumption-based CAPM with belief heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 30-46.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    16. Fama, Eugene F., 1983. "Financial intermediation and price level control," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-28.
    17. Julien Cujean & Michael Hasler, 2017. "Why Does Return Predictability Concentrate in Bad Times?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2717-2758, December.
    18. Basak, Suleyman, 2005. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2849-2881, November.
    19. Miao, Jianjun & Xie, Danyang, 2013. "Economic growth under money illusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 84-103.
    20. Alexander David, 2008. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 41-83, February.
    21. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous preferences, beliefs, and portfolio constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 21-34.
    22. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    23. Bomberger, William A & Frazer, William J, Jr, 1981. "Interest Rates, Uncertainty and the Livingston Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 661-675, June.
    24. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
    25. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 147-189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    27. Peng Cheng & Olivier Scaillet, 2007. "Linear‐Quadratic Jump‐Diffusion Modeling," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 575-598, October.
    28. Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 29-61, March.
    29. Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anwar, Cep Jandi, 2021. "Heterogeneity Effect of Central Bank Independence on Asset Prices: Evidence from Selected Developing Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 65-80.
    2. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs with herding behaviors and asset pricing in two goods world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2020. "Disagreement with procyclical beliefs and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
    4. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni & Ma, Chaoqun & Cheng, Fengchao, 2020. "Disagreements with noisy signals and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2022. "Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    7. Shi, Lei, 2016. "Consumption-based CAPM with belief heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 30-46.
    8. Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Hailong & Cheng, Fengchao & Hu, Duni, 2017. "Asset pricing and institutional investors with disagreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 231-248.
    9. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2024. "Heterogeneous beliefs with information processing capacity constraints and asset pricing in a monetary economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2017. "Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 64-79.
    11. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
    12. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.
    13. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2010, January-A.
    14. Andrea Buraschi & Paul Whelan, 2022. "Speculation, Sentiment, and Interest Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2308-2329, March.
    15. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    16. Benjamin Croitoru & Lei Lu, 2015. "Asset Pricing in a Monetary Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2203-2219, September.
    17. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 9, July-Dece.
    18. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Park, Sunjin, 2022. "Heterogeneous beliefs in macroeconomic growth prospects and the carry risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Ki Beom Binh & Hogyu Jhang, 2015. "Extraneous Risk: Pricing of Non-Systematic Risk," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 335-352, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money illusion; Heterogeneous belief; Asset pricing; Malliavin derivative; Portfolio plan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:167-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.