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Efficient modelling and forecasting with range based volatility models and its application

Author

Listed:
  • Ng, Kok Haur
  • Peiris, Shelton
  • Chan, Jennifer So-kuen
  • Allen, David
  • Ng, Kooi Huat

Abstract

This paper considers an alternative method for fitting CARR models using the combined estimating functions (CEF) by showing its usefulness in applications in economics and quantitative finance. The associated information matrix for corresponding new estimates is derived to calculate the standard errors. Extensive simulation study is carried out to demonstrate its superiority relative to two other competitors: the linear estimating functions (LEF) and the maximum likelihood (ML). Results show that the CEF method is more efficient than the LEF and ML methods when the error distribution is mis-specified. Applying a real data set from financial market, we illustrate the applicability of the CEF method in practice and report some reliable forecast values for minimizing the risk in decision making process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ng, Kok Haur & Peiris, Shelton & Chan, Jennifer So-kuen & Allen, David & Ng, Kooi Huat, 2017. "Efficient modelling and forecasting with range based volatility models and its application," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 448-460.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:448-460
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.08.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Shay Kee Tan & Kok Haur Ng & Jennifer So-Kuen Chan, 2022. "Predicting Returns, Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Tan, Shay-Kee & Ng, Kok-Haur & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen & Mohamed, Ibrahim, 2019. "Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 537-551.
    3. Wu, Xinyu & Xie, Haibin & Zhang, Huanming, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Wu, Xinyu & Hou, Xinmeng, 2020. "Forecasting volatility with component conditional autoregressive range model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility model; Estimating functions; Range data; Conditional autoregressive range model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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