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A risk index to model uncertain portfolio investment with options

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xuting
  • Huang, Xiaoxia

Abstract

This paper models the portfolio investment performance with options by using a risk index, which is defined as the average loss below the risk-free interest rate. Using a risk-free interest rate as the uniform reference rate for all portfolios, the risk index offers an easier-to-compare loss value than the value-at-risk return, where portfolio specific references are used to calculate the average losses. Besides, uncertainty theory is used in the paper to derive the portfolio decision when stock prices are subject to experts' estimations. By analytical computation and empirical analysis, we find that portfolios considering options generate better return than the ones without options. The empirical analysis reveals that the options can effectively hedge the risk, and the call option with a higher exercise price offers higher return per unit of option premium. Furthermore, our proposed model produces higher expected return in most cases than the model where the risk is measured by the chance of the total return failing to reach the threshold level of return.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xuting & Huang, Xiaoxia, 2019. "A risk index to model uncertain portfolio investment with options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 284-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:284-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Tingting & Huang, Xiaoxia, 2022. "Active or passive portfolio: A tracking error analysis under uncertainty theory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 309-326.
    2. Fengmin Xu & Jieao Ma, 2023. "Intelligent option portfolio model with perspective of shadow price and risk-free profit," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Tingting Yang & Xiaoxia Huang, 2022. "A New Portfolio Optimization Model Under Tracking-Error Constraint with Linear Uncertainty Distributions," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 195(2), pages 723-747, November.
    4. Yang, Tingting & Huang, Xiaoxia, 2022. "Two new mean–variance enhanced index tracking models based on uncertainty theory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio optimization; Options; Risk index model; Uncertainty theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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