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How index investment impacts commodities: A story about the financialization of agricultural commodities

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  • Aït-Youcef, Camille

Abstract

This paper focuses on the impact of financial investors on agricultural prices, a phenomenon known as the financialization. In this aim, we check whether financial mechanisms drive extreme values and the mean of agricultural returns in the same way. Relying on the Threshold AutoRegressive Quantile (TQAR) methodology, we find evidence of reinforcement linkages between equity and agricultural markets since 2004, corresponding to the rise in inflows of institutional investors in commodity markets. These results show that agents impact more deeply commodity markets when the commodity index value is high. In addition, in extreme quantiles (0.75 and 0.90) of agricultural returns, the relationship between agricultural and stock returns is always significant when the commodity index return is in the higher regime. This finding suggests that, stock markets had a greater impact on agricultural price dynamics during the extreme movements which occurred during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, highlighting a potential influence of financial markets on the financialization of commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Aït-Youcef, Camille, 2019. "How index investment impacts commodities: A story about the financialization of agricultural commodities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 23-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:23-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural commodities; Stock markets; Financialization; TQAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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