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Housing and business cycles in Korea: A multi-sector Bayesian DSGE approach

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  • Lee, Junhee
  • Song, Joonhyuk

Abstract

The Korean housing market showed booms in the early 2000s and sharp fluctuations after the U.S. financial crisis. The recent increase in volatility in the housing market has motivated greater attention to the relationship between the housing market and the Korean economy. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the housing construction sector and analyzes the role of housing in the Korean business cycles. The results indicate that the model incorporating the collateral role of houses in conjunction with predetermined pricing in the housing construction sector provides a reasonably good fit to the data. In addition, the paper conducts policy simulations of a changing loan-to-value (LTV) ratio ceiling and finds its significant effects on financially constrained households' consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Junhee & Song, Joonhyuk, 2015. "Housing and business cycles in Korea: A multi-sector Bayesian DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 99-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:99-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.11.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:03:2023:p:420-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fabio Milani & Sung Ho Park, 2019. "Expectations and Macro-Housing Interactions in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Korea," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 375-402, April.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
    4. Song Joonhyuk & Ryu Doojin, 2021. "Houses as Collateral and Household Debt Deleveraging in Korea," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 3-27, January.
    5. Ge, Xinyu & Li, Xiao-Lin & Zheng, Ling, 2020. "The transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 215-231.
    6. Ume, Ejindu, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on housing market activity: An assessment using sign restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 23-31.
    7. Akbobek Akhmedyarova, 2023. "Housing Market Dynamics in Kazakhstan: An Estimated DSGE Model," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 422-464.
    8. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Mehmet İvrendi, 2021. "Turkish Housing Market Dynamics: An Estimated DSGE Model," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 238-267, May.
    9. Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2016. "External shocks and exchange rate regimes in Southeast Asia: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 365-382.
    10. Anton Votinov & Samvel Lazaryan & Yulia Polshchikova, 2023. "The Impact of the Cross-Sectoral Economic Structure on the Properties of DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(1), pages 32-54, March.
    11. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    12. Mérő, Bence & Borsos, András & Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Oláh, Zsolt & Vágó, Nikolett, 2023. "A high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Regionally heterogeneous housing cycles and housing market stabilization policies: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.

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