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A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling

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  • Kębłowski, Piotr
  • Welfe, Aleksander

Abstract

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kębłowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2012. "A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1473-1482.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1473-1482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.002
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    3. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Sovereign Risk, Cross-Currency Basis and Equity Markets: A Cross-Market Dynamic Interaction," MPRA Paper 100946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Piotr Karp, 2015. "Asymetryczny wpływ zmian kursu walutowego na gospodarkę Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 29-49.
    6. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    7. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2018. "Sovereign risk and the real exchange rate: A non-linear approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 1-14.
    8. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
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    10. Aleksander Welfe & Piotr Karp, 2017. "Makroekonometryczny miesięczny model gospodarki Polski WM-1," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-38.
    11. Adrian Marek Burda, 2022. "How Well Do Contemporary Theories Explain Floating Exchange Rate Changes in an Emerging Economy: The Case of EUR/PLN," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Ur Koumba & Calvin Mudzingiri & Jules Mba, 2020. "Does uncertainty predict cryptocurrency returns? A copula-based approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 67-88, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate modelling; Sovereign credit default risk; CDS spread; International parities; Equilibrium exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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