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Operational risk as a function of the state of the economy

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  • Moosa, Imad

Abstract

This paper examines the frequency and severity of the operational losses incurred by U.S. firms during the period 1990-2007, as reported by Fitch Risk. The losses are examined in relation to the state of the U.S. economy as represented by the unemployment rate, which is the macroeconomic variable that is most intuitively appealing in terms of association with the incidence of operational losses. The results of structural time series modelling reveal that while total severity and average severity are positively related to the unemployment rate, the frequency of losses is not.

Suggested Citation

  • Moosa, Imad, 2011. "Operational risk as a function of the state of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2137-2142, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:2137-2142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larry Li & Imad Moosa, 2015. "Operational risk, the legal system and governance indicators: a country-level analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2053-2072, April.
    2. Roc'io Paredes & Marco Vega, 2020. "An internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking," Papers 2002.03235, arXiv.org.
    3. Imad Moosa & Larry Li, 2013. "The frequency and severity of operational losses: a cross-country comparison," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 167-172, February.
    4. narjess BOUABDALLAH & jamel Eddine HENCHIRI, 2020. "L' impact des mécanismes de gouvernance interne sur le risque opérationnel bancaire," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 11(1), pages 151-189, June.
    5. Wagner, Stephan M. & Mizgier, Kamil J. & Papageorgiou, Stylianos, 2017. "Operational disruptions and business cycles," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 66-78.
    6. Berlinger, Edina & Lilla Keresztúri, Judit & Lublóy, Ágnes & Vőneki Tamásné, Zsuzsanna, 2022. "Press freedom and operational losses: The monitoring role of the media," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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