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Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment

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  • Hall, Stephen G.
  • Hondroyiannis, George
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B.
  • Tavlas, George S.

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence on the causal relationship between money and price for the euro area using quarterly data for the period 1980 to 2006, employing two alternative methods of estimation: the vector error correction (VEC) and time-varying coefficient (TVC) estimation techniques. The latter technique has the advantage over the former technique in that it can deal with possible specification biases and spurious relationships that may have arisen from structural changes. The empirical results from the VEC method reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between money and prices. The results from the TVC technique suggest that money is acting as an exogenous process determining the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:4:p:760-766
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    Cited by:

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    2. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Chien-Chiang Lee & An-Hsing Chang, 2013. "Revisiting the demand for money function: evidence from the random coefficients approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 1491-1502, September.
    4. Smith, Ron P. & Tasiran, Ali, 2010. "Random coefficients models of arms imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1522-1528, November.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    7. Jiang, Chun & Chang, Tsangyao & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2015. "Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-261.
    8. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
    9. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2022. "Strengthening the second pillar: a greater role for money in the ECB’s strategy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 99-114, January.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
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    12. Antonio Focacci & Angelo Focacci & Alessandro Faenza, 2024. "The lens of the quantity theory of money to disentangle the perceived relationship between money growth and inflation: a PSVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 571-595, September.

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