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Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis

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  • Creedy, John
  • Gemmell, Norman

Abstract

This paper examines the built-in flexibility properties -- as measured by the elasticity of revenue with respect to profits -- of the UK corporation tax system. Emphasis is placed on determining some of the major influences on the extent to which total corporation tax revenue changes when profits change over the economic cycle. A microsimulation model, CorpSim, is constructed and used to obtain numerical results. In the model, corporations use group relief, capital allowances and losses in a tax-minimising manner. The growth of aggregate corporation tax revenue in practice in the UK appears to be highly volatile in relation to the growth of profits. High volatility in revenue elasticities is found to be especially associated with economic downturns. In mild economic downturns, corporation tax revenue elasticities may rise (because tax growth falls less than profit growth), but in more severe downturns, large but temporary decreases in revenue elasticities (and even negative elasticities) can be expected.

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  • Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2009. "Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 614-625, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:614-625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2003. "The Revenue Responsiveness of Income and Consumption Taxes in the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(6), pages 641-658, December.
    2. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2009. "Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 614-625, May.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach, 1986. "The Dynamic Effects of Tax Law Asymmetries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 205-225.
    4. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2006. "Modelling Tax Revenue Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4073.
    5. Rosanne Altshuler & Alan J. Auerbach, 1990. "The Significance of Tax Law Asymmetries: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 61-86.
    6. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2008. "Corporation tax buoyancy and revenue elasticity in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 24-37, January.
    7. Michael Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Alexander Klemm, 2004. "How has the UK corporation tax raised so much revenue?," IFS Working Papers W04/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Michael Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Alexander Klemm, 2004. "Why has the UK corporation tax raised so much revenue?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 367-388, December.
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    1. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2009. "Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 614-625, May.
    2. Paul Eckerstorfer, 2013. "Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Multiexternality Model," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(1), pages 115-128, March.
    3. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2007. "Modelling Behavioural Responses to Profit Taxation: The Case of the UK Corporation Tax," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 998, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Courtioux, Pierre & Gregoir, Stéphane & Houeto, Dede, 2014. "Modelling the distribution of returns on higher education: A microsimulation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 328-340.
    5. Joanna Piotrowska & Werner Vanborren, 2008. "The corporate income tax rate-revenue paradox: Evidence in the EU," Taxation Papers 12, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission, revised Oct 2008.
    6. Cornevin, Antoine & Corrales, Juan Sebastian & Mojica, Juan Pablo Angel, 2024. "Do tax revenues track economic growth? Comparing panel data estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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