New energy policy and new quality productive forces: A quasi-natural experiment based on demonstration cities

The impact of the new energy policy on the new quality productive forces (NQPF) in developing countries still lacks empirical evidence. The new energy demonstration city policy (NEDCP), serving as a comprehensive energy strategy in China, holds significant importance in driving the transformation of energy structures and fostering the NQPF. Based on the panel data collected from 276 Chinese cities, this study employs the difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of the NEDCP on the NQPF. The findings indicate a substantial enhancement in the NQPF as a result of the NEDCP. While the NEDCP has a short-term effect on the NQPF, the long-term effect is insignificant. When considering the removal of low-carbon city variables, the influence of NEDCP was significantly improved. The NEDCP indirectly improves the NQPF through urban innovation capacity, government fiscal support, and industrial structure upgrading. The human capital level positively moderates the NEDCP's effect on the NQPF. In contrast to cities reliant on natural resources, the NEDCP exhibits a significantly greater influence on augmenting the NQPF in cities that are not dependent on such resources. Cities with higher urbanization levels experience a more substantial positive impact on the NQPF from the NEDCP compared to cities with lower urbanization levels. Our findings have important theoretical significance and can provide practical guidance to help developing countries improve NQPF through new energy policies.