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Fiscal behaviours in EMU countries: A dynamic approach

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  • Christophe Schalck

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the time-varying reactions of fiscal behaviours, relating the cyclical-adjusted primary balance to the output gap and debt variations for EMU countries for the period 1999ó2012 using quarterly data. We estimated these behaviours using a Kalman FilteróMaximum Likelihood approach. Our results showed that the behaviours of fiscal authorities in the euro area have evolved since 1999 at least once in response to both internal targets and external shocks. In particular, most countries pursued a counter-cyclical policy after 2008, while the current period is characterised by an a-cyclical or pro-cyclical policy. Changes in the orientation of fiscal policies are also manifested by changes in the concern for sustainability. The results also show that the fiscal stance is improved by faster credit growth and is worsened in the presence of parliamentary elections.

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  • Christophe Schalck, 2014. "Fiscal behaviours in EMU countries: A dynamic approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 345-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:44:y:2014:i:3:p:345-354
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    Cited by:

    1. Canh Phuc NGUYEN & Christophe SCHINCKUS, 2020. "The Spending Behavior of Government through the Lenses of Global Uncertainty and Economic Integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-57, July.
    2. Pirvu, Daniela & Dutu, Amalia & Enachescu, Carmen, 2019. "Analysing Of Government'S Fiscal Behaviour In The Eu Member States Through Clustering Procedure," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 10(1), pages 23-39.
    3. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus & Jo Bensemann & Lai Trung Thanh, 2019. "Global Emissions: A New Contribution from the Shadow Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 320-337.

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