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Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Ramprasad Bhar

    (School of Banking and Finance, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia)

  • Girijasankar Mallik

    (School of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith South D. C., 1797, Australia)

Abstract

Using quarterly data this study finds that inflation uncertainty have negative and significant effects on inflation and output growth at least after the inflation targeting. We also find that output uncertainty has negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy variable as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase the inflation uncertainty. These findings are robust and the Generalised Impulse Response Functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy, and the aim of stabilisation policy in general.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2012. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 305-318, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:305-318
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
    2. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    4. M.A. Villanthenkodath & K. Hafsal & A. K. Dawood & N. Cheriyambadan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and sectoral level output in India: The implications on structural change," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Herzog, Bodo, 2023. "How credible is average and symmetric inflation targeting in an episode of high inflation?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1750-1761.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EGARCH; Inflation; Growth; Inflation Uncertainty; Output Uncertainty; Impulse Response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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