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Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

Using Krugman's (1991) target zone model, we find an explicit, sub-game perfect solution for a central bank wishing to stabilize the exchange rate given proportional costs of intervention. We demonstrate, however, that precommitment to narrower bands would yield a welfare gain - which provides a theoretical rationale for an Exchange Rate Mechansim (ERM). Numerical simulations suggest that the optimal currency band with precommitment via an ERM is only half as wide as that under discretion.
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  • Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996. "Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1641-1660.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:20:y:1996:i:9-10:p:1641-1660
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    1. J. Michael Harrison & Michael I. Taksar, 1983. "Instantaneous Control of Brownian Motion," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 439-453, August.
    2. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    4. J. Michael Harrison & Thomas M. Sellke & Allison J. Taylor, 1983. "Impulse Control of Brownian Motion," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 454-466, August.
    5. Krugman,Paul & Miller,Marcus (ed.), 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521435260, September.
    6. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    7. Daniel Cohen & Philippe Michel, 1988. "How Should Control Theory Be Used to Calculate a Time-Consistent Government Policy?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(2), pages 263-274.
    8. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1997. "Hyperinflation and Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 441-454, March.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Spiegel, Yossi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate bands: balancing credibility and flexibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 379-408, March.
    3. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada.
    4. Daniel Laskar, 1997. ""Incohérence temporelle" de la politique monétaire optimale. Un argument en faveur des zones cibles," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 5-22.
    5. Miller, Marcus & García-Fronti, Javier, 2002. "Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1510-1518, July.
    7. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
    8. Gregory Gagnon, 2012. "Exchange rate bifurcation in a stochastic evolutionary finance model," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 35(1), pages 29-58, May.
    9. Joao L. M. Amador, 1999. "Optimal budget deficit rules," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp385, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    10. Joon-Hwan Im, 2001. "Optimal Currency Target Zones: How Wide Should Exchange Rate Bands Be?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 61-93.
    11. Cadenillas, Abel & Zapatero, Fernando, 1999. "Optimal Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 218-242, July.
    12. Alex Cukierman & Itay Goldstein & Yossi Spiegel, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime and Speculative Attacks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1206-1241, December.
    13. Lin, Hwan C., 2008. "Forward-rate target zones and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 831-846, September.
    14. Mundaca, Gabriela & Oksendal, Bernt, 1998. "Optimal stochastic intervention control with application to the exchange rate," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 225-243, March.
    15. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Lai, Hung-Pin, 2011. "A structural threshold model of the exchange rate under optimal intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 931-946, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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