IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v173y2025ics0165188925000247.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model

Author

Listed:
  • Fazzari, Steven M.
  • González, Alejandro

Abstract

This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces unemployment and stimulates supply. We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find that after a unit demand shock, labor productivity and labor supply increase by 0.8 and 0.2, respectively, in the long-run. For an economy with labor market slack, our estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a 0.74 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. These hysteresis results are robust to whether or not the Great Recession is included in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Fazzari, Steven M. & González, Alejandro, 2025. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:173:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925000247
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Demand-led growth; Supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:173:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.