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The uneven reach of the state: A novel approach to mapping local state presence

Author

Listed:
  • Agneman, Gustav
  • Cappelen, Christoffer
  • Brandt, Kasper
  • Sjöberg, David

Abstract

The ability of states to exercise authority often varies considerably within their borders, yet we lack reliable empirical measures of the uneven reach of states. In this paper, we develop a methodology to predict state presence at granular spatial resolutions and demonstrate the approach using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We link a range of indicators of state presence, e.g., infrastructural data, with geolocated survey data of residents’ experiences with subnational governance. Then, we employ a machine learning algorithm that learns how the input variables relate to experienced state presence and extrapolates the predictions to all of Sub-Saharan Africa. We validate the predicted measure through a range of tests and document how local state presence influences development outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Agneman, Gustav & Cappelen, Christoffer & Brandt, Kasper & Sjöberg, David, 2025. "The uneven reach of the state: A novel approach to mapping local state presence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000045
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103453
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State presence; Machine learning; Conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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