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When the levee breaks: The impact of floods on educational outcomes in China

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  • Huang, Zenghe
  • Dong, Xiaofang

Abstract

This study examines the impact of flooding on human capital investment in China. We find that early flood exposure significantly reduces educational attainment and the likelihood of entering high school in rural areas, particularly in regions with lower flood risk, non-detention basins, and counties without flood control dams. Income and opportunity cost effects contribute to these outcomes, with floods disproportionately affecting students from poor households. The emergence of low-skilled and labor-intensive firms post-floods further exacerbates the negative impact due to new job opportunities. A cohort difference-in-difference analysis of the 1998 China flood reveals that affected children under 15 in flooded areas experienced a reduction of 0.16 years in education. Our findings highlight the need for flood policies that mitigate the long-term adverse effects on human capital accumulation in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Zenghe & Dong, Xiaofang, 2025. "When the levee breaks: The impact of floods on educational outcomes in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s030438782500001x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103450
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flood; Human capital investment; Opportunity cost; Income effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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