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Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

Author

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  • Bertinelli, Luisito
  • Cömertpay, Rana
  • Maystadt, Jean-François

Abstract

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertinelli, Luisito & Cömertpay, Rana & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2025. "Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0304387824001421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Diversity; Conflict; Migration; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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