IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v151y2021ics0304387821000274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Downey, Mitch

Abstract

Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which, following the September 11th attacks, demanded that countries take active steps to reduce terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence of government expansions and implement this test using subnational data on conflict, government presence, and public goods in Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Downey, Mitch, 2021. "Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387821000274
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102648?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    3. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    4. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    5. Eric Werker & Faisal Z. Ahmed & Charles Cohen, 2009. "How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 225-244, July.
    6. Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2011. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 766-819.
    7. Jacob N. Shapiro & Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2023. "Fiscal Incentives for Conflict: Evidence from India's Red Corridor," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 217-225, January.
    8. Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra, 2020. "On the Origins of the State: Stationary Bandits and Taxation in Eastern Congo," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(1), pages 32-74.
    9. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    10. Cesi Cruz & Christina J. Schneider, 2017. "Foreign Aid and Undeserved Credit Claiming," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(2), pages 396-408, April.
    11. Elizabeth Gooch, 2018. "Resistance is Futile? Institutional and Geographic Factors in China’s Great Leap Famine," HiCN Working Papers 266, Households in Conflict Network.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    13. Lee, Melissa M., 2018. "The International Politics of Incomplete Sovereignty: How Hostile Neighbors Weaken the State," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 283-315, April.
    14. Eli Berman & Mitch Downey & Joseph Felter, 2016. "Expanding Governance as Development: Evidence on Child Nutrition in the Philippines," NBER Working Papers 21849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin Crost & Joseph Felter & Patrick Johnston, 2014. "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1833-1856, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Posso, Alberto, 2023. "Terrorism, banking, and informal savings: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter, 2020. "Export Crops and Civil Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1484-1520.
    2. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    3. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    5. Nemera Gebeyehu Mamo, 2018. "Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict," Economics PhD Theses 0518, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Rabah Arezki & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Nemera Mamo, 2015. "Resource Discovery and Conflict in Africa: What do the data show?," OxCarre Working Papers 159, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    8. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    9. Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Chowdhury, Prabal Roy & Rahman, Habibur, 2023. "Does credit availability mitigate domestic conflict?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L Wright, 2024. "Team production on the battlefield: Evidence from NATO in Afghanistan," PSE Working Papers halshs-04610715, HAL.
    11. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    13. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Pushing one’s luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Michael Keller, 2021. "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 129-166, January.
    15. Smith, Brock, 2015. "The resource curse exorcised: Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 57-73.
    16. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    17. Keisuke Okada & Sovannroeun Samreth, 2021. "Oil bonanza and the composition of government expenditure," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-46, March.
    18. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2014. "The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 319-336, May.
    19. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Cust,James Frederick & Mensah,Justice Tei, 2020. "Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9372, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National security; Ungoverned spaces; State capacity; Conflict; Deterrence; Africa; Foreign policy; Terrorism; War on terror;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.