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A Bayesian semiparametric model for volatility with a leverage effect

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  • Delatola, E.-I.
  • Griffin, J.E.

Abstract

A Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility model for financial data is developed. This nonparametrically estimates the return distribution from the data allowing for stylized facts such as heavy tails of the distribution of returns whilst also allowing for correlation between the returns and changes in volatility, which is usually termed the leverage effect. An efficient MCMC algorithm is described for inference. The model is applied to simulated data and two real data sets. The results of fitting the model to these data show that choosing a parametric return distribution can have a substantial effect on inference about the leverage effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Delatola, E.-I. & Griffin, J.E., 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric model for volatility with a leverage effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 97-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:97-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.10.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, September.
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    6. Lopes, Hedibert F., 2014. "Particle learning for Bayesian non-parametric Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility model," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws142819, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    8. Jim Griffin & Maria Kalli & Mark Steel, 2018. "Discussion of “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications”: Bayesian nonparametric methods in econometrics," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(2), pages 207-218, June.
    9. Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024. "An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.
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    12. Lengua Lafosse, Patricia & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "An empirical application of a stochastic volatility model with GH skew Student's t-distribution to the volatility of Latin-American stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 155-173.

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