IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v69y2021ics0929119921001541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Firm uncertainty and corporate policies: The role of stock return skewness

Author

Listed:
  • Easterwood, John C.
  • Paye, Bradley S.
  • Xie, Yutong

Abstract

We study the interaction between firm uncertainty and corporate policies, emphasizing the role of skewness in the distribution of performance shocks reflected in stock returns. Conditional on volatility and other characteristics, firms with more negatively skewed performance shocks adopt more conservative policies, including greater cash holdings, a lower likelihood of dividend payments and increases in payout levels, and less financial leverage. These relationships are significant and robust for asymmetry proxies constructed from stock return innovations, in contrast to results for measures based on accounting performance shocks. This disparity highlights the importance of asymmetries in long-run performance shocks for corporate policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Easterwood, John C. & Paye, Bradley S. & Xie, Yutong, 2021. "Firm uncertainty and corporate policies: The role of stock return skewness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0929119921001541
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119921001541
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsas, Ralf & Florysiak, David, 2015. "Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment and the Impact of Fractional Dependent Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 1105-1133, October.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    4. Michael O'Connor Keefe & James Tate & Henk Berkman, 2013. "Is the relationship between investment and conditional cash flow volatility ambiguous, asymmetric or both?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(4), pages 913-947, December.
    5. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    6. Gao, Huasheng & Harford, Jarrad & Li, Kai, 2013. "Determinants of corporate cash policy: Insights from private firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 623-639.
    7. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    8. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    9. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Mussbach, Emil & Westheide, Christian, 2020. "Corporate insider trading and return skewness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & McCullough, B.D., 2008. "Regression analysis of proportions in finance with self selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 860-867, December.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:271-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bradley, Michael & Jarrell, Gregg A & Kim, E Han, 1984. "On the Existence of an Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 857-878, July.
    13. Chay, J.B. & Suh, Jungwon, 2009. "Payout policy and cash-flow uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 88-107, July.
    14. Skinner, Douglas J., 2008. "The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 582-609, March.
    15. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    16. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    17. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Gryglewicz, S. & Morellec, E. & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2015. "Corporate Policies with Temporary and Permanent Shocks," IDEI Working Papers 843, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Mar 2016.
    18. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    19. Murray Z. Frank & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2009. "Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors Are Reliably Important?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 1-37, March.
    20. Alexander S. Gorbenko, 2010. "Temporary versus Permanent Shocks: Explaining Corporate Financial Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2591-2647, July.
    21. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Lambertides, Neophytos, 2014. "The Role of Growth Options in Explaining Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 749-771, June.
    22. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    25. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    26. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    27. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 227-254, August.
    28. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1973. "A State-Preference Model of Optimal Financial Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 911-922, September.
    29. Christoph Schneider & Oliver Spalt, 2016. "Conglomerate Investment, Skewness, and the CEO Long-Shot Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 635-672, April.
    30. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    31. Han, Seungjin & Qiu, Jiaping, 2007. "Corporate precautionary cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-57, March.
    32. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    33. Michael Faulkender & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2006. "Does the Source of Capital Affect Capital Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 45-79.
    34. Schneider, C.A.R. & Spalt, Oliver, 2016. "Conglomerate investment, skewness, and the CEO long shot bias," Other publications TiSEM 5d9321e2-35ea-40f9-9eae-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1777-1804 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Xu, Jin, 2012. "Profitability and capital structure: Evidence from import penetration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 427-446.
    37. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    38. Del Viva, Luca & Kasanen, Eero & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2017. "Real Options, Idiosyncratic Skewness, and Diversification," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 215-241, February.
    39. An, Zhe & Li, Donghui & Yu, Jin, 2015. "Firm crash risk, information environment, and speed of leverage adjustment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 132-151.
    40. Fritz Foley, C. & Hartzell, Jay C. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2007. "Why do firms hold so much cash? A tax-based explanation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 579-607, December.
    41. Avramov, Doron & Li, Minwen & Wang, Hao, 2021. "Predicting corporate policies using downside risk: A machine learning approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-26.
    42. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips & Nagpurnanand Prabhala, 2014. "Product Market Threats, Payouts, and Financial Flexibility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 293-324, February.
    43. Joaquim Ramalho & J. Silva, 2013. "Functional form issues in the regression analysis of financial leverage ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 799-831, April.
    44. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    45. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
    46. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:1957-1978 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross‐Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    48. Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2016. "The influence of cash flow volatility on capital structure and the use of debt of different maturities," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    49. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    50. Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
    51. Antoniou, Antonios & Guney, Yilmaz & Paudyal, Krishna, 2008. "The Determinants of Capital Structure: Capital Market-Oriented versus Bank-Oriented Institutions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 59-92, March.
    52. Viet Anh Dang & Edward Lee & Yangke Liu & Cheng Zeng, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity and stock price crash risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 451-484, June.
    53. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "The mystery of zero-leverage firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-23.
    54. Devos, Erik & Dhillon, Upinder & Jagannathan, Murali & Krishnamurthy, Srinivasan, 2012. "Why are firms unlevered?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 664-682.
    55. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    56. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    57. Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H & Ramirez, Gabriel G, 1991. "The Effect of Business Risk on Corporate Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1693-1715, December.
    58. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 335-367, April.
    59. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 639-662, June.
    60. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Kuntal K. & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2024. "Migration fear and stock price crash risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Song, Jeongseop & Zhang, Fan, 2024. "Regional market uncertainty and corporate investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    3. Sai Ding & Minjoo Kim & Xiao Zhang, 2021. "New Insight on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity," Working Papers 2021_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "In search of robust methods for dynamic panel data models in empirical corporate finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-98.
    2. Durand, Robert B. & Greene, William H. & Harris, Mark N. & Khoo, Joye, 2022. "Heterogeneity in speed of adjustment using finite mixture models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Asymmetric capital structure adjustments: New evidence from dynamic panel threshold models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 465-482.
    4. Im, Hyun Joong & Kang, Ya & Shon, Janghoon, 2020. "How does uncertainty influence target capital structure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Borochin, Paul & Yang, Jie, 2017. "Options, equity risks, and the value of capital structure adjustments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 150-178.
    6. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2014. "Asymmetric adjustment toward optimal capital structure: Evidence from a crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-242.
    7. Beyer, Brooke & Downes, Jimmy & Rapley, Eric T., 2017. "Internal capital market inefficiencies, shareholder payout, and abnormal leverage," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 39-57.
    8. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Avramov, Doron & Li, Minwen & Wang, Hao, 2021. "Predicting corporate policies using downside risk: A machine learning approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-26.
    10. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    11. Bessler, Wolfgang & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Haller, Rebekka & Meier, Iwan, 2013. "The international zero-leverage phenomenon," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 196-221.
    12. Muhammad Nurul Houqe & Reza M. Monem & Tony van Zijl, 2023. "Business strategy, cash holdings, and dividend payouts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 3999-4035, December.
    13. Iwaki, Hiromichi & Saito, Junyu, 2022. "Does rollover risk matter to payout policies? Evidence from Japanese listed firms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Dang, Viet Anh, 2013. "An empirical analysis of zero-leverage firms: New evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 189-202.
    15. Morais, Flávio & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2022. "Capital structure speed of adjustment heterogeneity across zero leverage and leveraged European firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Efstathios Magerakis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2020. "Firm Size Does Matter: New Evidence on the Determinants of Cash Holdings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-35, July.
    17. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Merikas, Andreas & Schröder, Henning, 2013. "Capital structure decisions of globally-listed shipping companies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-76.
    18. Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2016. "The influence of cash flow volatility on capital structure and the use of debt of different maturities," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    19. Viet Anh Dang, 2011. "Testing Capital Structure Theories Using Error Correction Models: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," Post-Print hal-00732527, HAL.
    20. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2010. "The response of firms' leverage to uncertainty: Evidence from UK public versus non-public firms," Working Papers 2010019, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0929119921001541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.