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Forecasting business cycle with chaotic time series based on neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions

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  • Chai, Soo H.
  • Lim, Joon S.

Abstract

This study presents a forecasting model of cyclical fluctuations of the economy based on the time delay coordinate embedding method. The model uses a neuro-fuzzy network called neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The preprocessed time series of the leading composite index using the time delay coordinate embedding method are used as input data to the NEWFM to forecast the business cycle. A comparative study is conducted using other methods based on wavelet transform and Principal Component Analysis for the performance comparison. The forecasting results are tested using a linear regression analysis to compare the approximation of the input data against the target class, gross domestic product (GDP). The chaos based model captures nonlinear dynamics and interactions within the system, which other two models ignore. The test results demonstrated that chaos based method significantly improved the prediction capability, thereby demonstrating superior performance to the other methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Chai, Soo H. & Lim, Joon S., 2016. "Forecasting business cycle with chaotic time series based on neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 118-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:90:y:2016:i:c:p:118-126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2016.03.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soo Han Chai & Joon Shik Lim, 2007. "Economic Turning Point Forecasting Using The Fuzzy Neural Network and Non-Overlap Area Distribution Measurement Method," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 111-130.
    2. Sharif Md. Raihan & Yi Wen & Bing Zeng, 2005. "Wavelet: a new tool for business cycle analysis," Working Papers 2005-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Niu, Hongli & Wang, Jun, 2013. "Complex dynamic behaviors of oriented percolation-based financial time series and Hang Seng index," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 36-44.
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    3. Liu, Weiping & Wang, Chengzhu & Li, Yonggang & Liu, Yishun & Huang, Keke, 2021. "Ensemble forecasting for product futures prices using variational mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Ku, Seungmo & Lee, Changju & Chang, Woojin & Wook Song, Jae, 2020. "Fractal structure in the S&P500: A correlation-based threshold network approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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