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Flexible mitigation of epidemics by transport management

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Fangzhou
  • Xue, Dong
  • Yu, Xinghu
  • Zhao, Zhihong
  • Lin, Shiying
  • Zhuang, Songlin
  • del Genio, Charo I.
  • Boccaletti, Stefano
  • Gao, Huijun

Abstract

In recent years, the global spread of novel infectious diseases has become a significant concern at all levels of the society. The existence of a capillary transport network that facilitates the transmission of the diseases is a particular factor whose relevance cannot be underestimated. In fact, to try to slow down the spread of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many governments adopted control measures that directly included travel restrictions. These measures, while undoubtedly effective, also had deleterious political and societal effects. In this article, we introduce an event-trigger mechanism in the decision-making framework for the mitigation of epidemics via transport management. Using our approach, we demonstrate that one can develop restriction policies in a controlled manner, so that the economic side effects remain tolerable. When applied to the COVID-19 pandemic data in Germany, our method shows better performance than the measures that were actually implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Fangzhou & Xue, Dong & Yu, Xinghu & Zhao, Zhihong & Lin, Shiying & Zhuang, Songlin & del Genio, Charo I. & Boccaletti, Stefano & Gao, Huijun, 2025. "Flexible mitigation of epidemics by transport management," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:194:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925002243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116211
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