IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v191y2025ics0960077924013651.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the vulnerability of empirical infrastructure networks to natural catastrophes

Author

Listed:
  • Scagliarini, Tomas
  • Artime, Oriol
  • De Domenico, Manlio

Abstract

Human-made infrastructures are complex systems continually exposed to events that threat their function, such as cascading failures, occurring when the flow of physical quantities is redistributed within the network as a consequence of localized disruptions. Nevertheless, the role played by exogenous catastrophic events and internal failures on the robustness of critical infrastructures is usually addressed independently, under simplifying assumptions and lacking a unified picture for realistic risk assessments. Here, we fill this gap by introducing the Operational-Affected-Dismantled (OAD) model that captures both local and nonlocal failure propagation mechanisms. The model combines reaction–diffusion processes for local spreading with a global field effect for long-range interactions, allowing us to quantitatively characterize the cascade dynamics in infrastructure networks. Moreover, we include information on external stressors to assess the robustness of empirical network infrastructures and build spatial risk maps. By using data from severe storms (2009–2016) and from earthquakes (2000–2023) as stressors of the North American power grid and the worldwide airline transportation system, respectively, we offer a quantitative way to rank events by their potential to trigger systemic effects. By analyzing the response of the European power grid to simulated severe storms, we find that it can show high levels of systemic risk. Uncertainty in global climate and the accelerating frequency of extreme events all over the globe call for novel strategies to quantify, adapt to and mitigate systemic risk. Our framework provides a suitable starting point to assess the robustness of empirical systems in realistic and what-if scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Scagliarini, Tomas & Artime, Oriol & De Domenico, Manlio, 2025. "Assessing the vulnerability of empirical infrastructure networks to natural catastrophes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0960077924013651
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077924013651
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115813?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0960077924013651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.