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Modelling of contact tracing in determining critical community size for infectious diseases

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  • Mondal, Jayanta
  • Samui, Piu
  • Chatterjee, Amar Nath

Abstract

In large communities, persistence of any epidemic eruption continues for a long time and the eradication of the epidemic is too critical as it depends on many affecting variables. In case of disease prevalence in small communities, critical community size (CCS), a threshold, helps to convey prediction about the expected time to extinction of any epidemic. We propose a deterministic model of HIV/AIDS epidemic considering the role of contact tracing in HIV partner notification. The stochastic version of our proposed model aids us to compute the CCS and time to extinction of HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model is adjusted using the data of HIV/AIDS cases of India for the last 30 years and key parameters are estimated. The sensitivity analysis enables to identify the influence of the model parameters in controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Our computation approach is independent of number of variables and thus may be fitted in determining the critical community size for any infectious disease (with the tend to persist for indefinite time) model with complex dynamics or of higher order.

Suggested Citation

  • Mondal, Jayanta & Samui, Piu & Chatterjee, Amar Nath, 2022. "Modelling of contact tracing in determining critical community size for infectious diseases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922003514
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. Clancy & P. D. O’Neill & P. K. Pollett, 2001. "Approximations for the Long-Term Behavior of an Open-Population Epidemic Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 75-95, March.
    2. Sarmistha Das & Pramit Ghosh & Sandip Banerjee & Saumyadipta Pyne & Joydev Chattopadhyay & Indranil Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Determination of critical community size from an HIV/AIDS model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Priti Kumar Roy & Jayanta Mondal & Rupa Bhattacharyya & Sabyasachi Bhattacharya & Tamas Szabados, 2013. "Extinction of Disease Pathogenesis in Infected Population and Its Subsequent Recovery: A Stochastic Approach," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-8, June.
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