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Effect of the early use of antivirals on the COVID-19 pandemic. A computational network modeling approach

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  • Benlloch, José-María
  • Cortés, Juan-Carlos
  • Martínez-Rodríguez, David
  • Julián, Raul-S.
  • Villanueva, Rafael-J.

Abstract

It seems that we are far from controlling COVID-19 pandemics, and, consequently, returning to a fully normal life. Until an effective vaccine is found, safety measures as the use of face masks, social distancing, washing hands regularly, etc., have to be taken. Also, the use of appropriate antivirals in order to alleviate the symptoms, to control the severity of the illness and to prevent the transmission, could be a good option that we study in this work. In this paper, we propose a computational random network model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Spain. Once the model has been calibrated and validated, we use it to simulate several scenarios where effective antivirals are available. The results show how the early use of antivirals may significantly reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and may avoid a new collapse of the health system.

Suggested Citation

  • Benlloch, José-María & Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Martínez-Rodríguez, David & Julián, Raul-S. & Villanueva, Rafael-J., 2020. "Effect of the early use of antivirals on the COVID-19 pandemic. A computational network modeling approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305646
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Villanueva-Oller & L. Acedo & J. A. Moraño & A. Sánchez-Sánchez, 2013. "Epidemic Random Network Simulations in a Distributed Computing Environment," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Utsumi, Shinobu & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tatsukawa, Yuichi & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Kumawat, Nitesh & Rashid, Mubasher & Srivastava, Akriti & Tripathi, Jai Prakash, 2023. "Hysteresis and Hopf bifurcation: Deciphering the dynamics of an in-host model of SARS-CoV-2 with logistic target cell growth and sigmoidal immune response," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Gabriel Sepulveda & Abraham J. Arenas & Gilberto González-Parra, 2023. "Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Dynamics under Two Vaccination Doses and Delay Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    5. He, Xinyi & Wang, Yuhan & Li, Xiaodi, 2021. "Uncertain impulsive control for leader-following synchronization of complex networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

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