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Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure

Author

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  • Gondim, João A.M.
  • Machado, Larissa

Abstract

The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gondim, João A.M. & Machado, Larissa, 2020. "Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305622
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166
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    Cited by:

    1. Raydonal Ospina & João A. M. Gondim & Víctor Leiva & Cecilia Castro, 2023. "An Overview of Forecast Analysis with ARIMA Models during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodology and Case Study in Brazil," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Ahmed, Mostak & Masud, Md. Abdullah Bin & Sarker, Md. Manirul Alam, 2023. "Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of discrete SIR model for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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