IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v138y2020ics0960077920303970.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the effects of quarantine using an IBM SEIR model on scalefree networks

Author

Listed:
  • Marquioni, Vitor M.
  • de Aguiar, Marcus A.M.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led several countries to resort to social distancing, the only known way to slow down the spread of the virus and keep the health system under control. Here we use an individual based model (IBM) to study how the duration, start date and intensity of quarantine affect the height and position of the peak of the infection curve. We show that stochastic effects, inherent to the model dynamics, lead to variable outcomes for the same set of parameters, making it crucial to compute the probability of each result. To simplify the analysis we divide the outcomes in only two categories, that we call best and worst scenarios. Although long and intense quarantine is the best way to end the epidemic, it is very hard to implement in practice. Here we show that relatively short and intense quarantine periods can also be very effective in flattening the infection curve and even killing the virus, but the likelihood of such outcomes are low. Long quarantines of relatively low intensity, on the other hand, can delay the infection peak and reduce its size considerably with more than 50% probability, being a more effective policy than complete lockdown for short periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Marquioni, Vitor M. & de Aguiar, Marcus A.M., 2020. "Quantifying the effects of quarantine using an IBM SEIR model on scalefree networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303970
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109999
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920303970
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109999?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Measurement and effect on mobility

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rachinskii, Dmitrii & Rouf, Samiha, 2022. "Dynamics of SIR model with heterogeneous response to intervention policy," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 71-85.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.