IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v25y2013icp117-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative capital inflows, adaptive expectations, and the optimal renminbi appreciation policy

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Mei
  • Qiu, Junfeng

Abstract

This paper examines empirical evidence of the adaptive learning behavior of speculators in the 2005–2008 renminbi appreciation episode, and establishes a theoretical model to explore appreciation policy implications of such a behavior. In our model, speculators form their expectations about the future appreciation premium adaptively by extrapolating past appreciation returns into the future. We find that a rapid appreciation may attract more capital inflows, and the central bank may prefer a slow appreciation to discourage capital inflows. Simulated results can generate hump-shaped paths of the appreciation speed, expected appreciation premium, and capital inflows. In addition, changes in the appreciation speed precede changes in the expected appreciation premium and capital inflows. These results are consistent with empirical evidence in the 2005–2008 renminbi appreciation episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Mei & Qiu, Junfeng, 2013. "Speculative capital inflows, adaptive expectations, and the optimal renminbi appreciation policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 117-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:117-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.05.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X12000612
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2012.05.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1262-1292, December.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    4. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    5. Mei Li & Junfeng Qiu, 2011. "Endogenous inflows of speculative capital and the optimal currency appreciation path," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 364-379, February.
    6. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1654-1668, December.
    9. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    11. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    12. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ning, Ye & Zhang, Lingxiang, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of short-term international capital flows in China: A Markov regime switching approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 193-203.
    2. Šević, Aleksandar & Brawn, Derek, 2015. "Do demographic changes matter? A cross-country perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 36-61.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    3. Mei Li & Junfeng Qiu, 2011. "Endogenous inflows of speculative capital and the optimal currency appreciation path," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 364-379, February.
    4. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Meixing Dai, 2009. "Public debt and currency crisis: how central bank opacity can make things bad?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 190-198.
    6. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Assaf Razin & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Review Of Theories of Financial Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
    9. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    10. Paolo Pesenti & Cédric Tille, 2000. "The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2008. "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4909, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    14. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    15. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2016. "Currency and external debt crises: A unifying framework," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 723-736.
    16. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
    17. Ahnert, Toni & Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty," Working Paper Series 282, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
    18. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2022. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion [Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 829-854.
    19. Chong, Terence T.L. & Yan, Isabel K., 2018. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 156-174.
    20. Sbracia, Massimo & Zaghini, Andrea, 2001. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 203-222, April.
    21. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive expectations; Renminbi appreciation; Speculative capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:117-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.