IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/bracre/v41y2009i3p184-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consistency of firms' past financial performance measures and future returns

Author

Listed:
  • Alwathainani, Abdulaziz M.

Abstract

In this study, I show that growth consistency in firms' past financial performance measures is useful in predicting future stock returns. Firms consistently ranking in the lowest 30 percent of past financial growth measures have greater rates of returns relative to their inconsistent low-growth firm counterparts. The return differential between these two groups increases uniformly with the length of estimation intervals of past performance data. Firms consistently ranking in the top 30 percent of growth rates earn slightly lower returns than inconsistent high-growth firms. These findings indicate that investors overreact to consistency in financial metrics, but this overreaction is more pronounced and persistent for consistent low-growth firms than that for consistent high-performing firms. Regression analyses reveal that consistency of firms' past financial performance predicts subsequent price movement. This association between past growth consistency and future returns is stronger for consistent low-growth firms relative to consistent high-growth firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Alwathainani, Abdulaziz M., 2009. "Consistency of firms' past financial performance measures and future returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 184-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:41:y:2009:i:3:p:184-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2009.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089083890900047X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.bar.2009.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    4. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    5. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    6. Nauzer Balsara & Lin Zheng & Andrea Vidozzi & Luca Vidozzi, 2006. "Explaining momentum profits with an epidemic diffusion model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 407-422, September.
    7. Boyce D. Watkins, 2006. "Institutional Ownership and Return Reversals Following Short‐Term Return Consistency," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 435-448, August.
    8. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    9. Chan, Wesley S. & Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P., 2004. "Testing behavioral finance theories using trends and consistency in financial performance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-50, December.
    10. Lee, Charles M. C., 2001. "Market efficiency and accounting research: a discussion of 'capital market research in accounting' by S.P. Kothari," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 233-253, September.
    11. La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 859-874, June.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Smith, Julia A. & Cordina, Renzo, 2014. "The role of accounting in high-technology investments," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 309-322.
    2. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.
    3. Han, Chunmao & Shi, Yongdong, 2022. "Chinese stock anomalies and investor sentiment," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Lee, Edward & Strong, Norman & Zhu, Zhenmei (Judy), 2014. "Did the value premium survive the subprime credit crisis?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 166-178.
    5. Tobek, Ondrej & Hronec, Martin, 2021. "Does it pay to follow anomalies research? Machine learning approach with international evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin Sterling, 2021. "Downside risk and the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Michael R. Roberts, 2016. "The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 22894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Geertsema, Paul & Lu, Helen, 2020. "The correlation structure of anomaly strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    3. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    4. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    5. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    6. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    7. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    8. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    9. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    10. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    11. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    13. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    14. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Anwer S. Ahmed & Irfan Safdar, 2017. "Evidence on the Presence of Representativeness Bias in Investor Interpretation of Consistency in Sales Growth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 97-113, January.
    16. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral finance," Papers 03-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    17. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Reactions of the capital markets to the shocks before and during the global crisis," MPRA Paper 41540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2012.
    18. Alwathainani, Abdulaziz M., 2012. "Consistent winners and losers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 210-220.
    19. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    20. Gishan Dissanaike & Kim†Hwa Lim, 2010. "The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(2), pages 229-255, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth consistency; Financial performance measures; Investors' overreaction; Behavioral models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:41:y:2009:i:3:p:184-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-british-accounting-review .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.