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Rationality of longevity expectations: Evidence from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging

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  • Pak, Tae-Young
  • Choung, Youngjoo

Abstract

This study utilizes data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging to test the rational expectations hypothesis regarding longevity expectations. The rationality of longevity expectations is tested on two grounds: belief formation and its association with consumption and savings outcomes. Although individuals seem to have little knowledge of lifespan, they revise their survival forecast rationally and systematically in response to new information. The updating process follows a random walk as predicted by a Bayesian learning model. We also show that consumption and savings behaviors vary with this rationally formed expectations as if individuals make deliberate long-range plans. Overall, these findings lend further support to the rational expectations hypothesis and individuals as forward-looking decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Pak, Tae-Young & Choung, Youngjoo, 2017. "Rationality of longevity expectations: Evidence from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 51-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:13:y:2017:i:c:p:51-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2017.02.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Choung, Youngjoo & Chatterjee, Swarn & Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "Depression and financial planning horizon," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Longevity expectations; Subjective survival probability; Rational expectations hypothesis; Bayesian updating; Consumption growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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