Economic, energy and environmental evaluations of biomass-based fuel ethanol projects based on life cycle assessment and simulation

This paper summarizes the research of Monte Carlo simulation-based Economic, Energy and Environmental (3E) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the three Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) projects in (the) People's Republic of China. Our research includes both theoretical study and case study. In the theoretical study part, 3E LCA models are structured, 3E Index Functions are defined and the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to address uncertainties in BFE life cycle analysis. In the case study part, projects of Wheat-based Fuel Ethanol (WFE) in Central China, Corn-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Northeast China, and Cassava-based Fuel Ethanol (KFE) in Southwest China are evaluated from the aspects of economic viability and investment risks, energy efficiency and airborne emissions. The life cycle economy assessment shows that KFE project in Guangxi is viable, while CFE and WFE projects are not without government's subsidies. Energy efficiency assessment results show that WFE, CFE and KFE projects all have positive Net Energy Values. Emissions results show that the corn-based E10 (a blend of 10% gasoline and 90% ethanol by volume), wheat-based E10 and cassava-base E10 have less CO2 and VOC life cycle emissions than conventional gasoline, but wheat-based E10 and cassava-based E10 can generate more emissions of CO, CH4, N2O, NOx, SO2, PM10 and corn-based E10 can have more emissions of CH4, N2O, NOx, SO, PM10.