The future of sugar cane in (the) People's Republic of China and India - Supply constraints and expansion potential

The last decade has seen a surging demand for biofuels in the wake of increasing oil prices and rising environmental concerns. The most common biofuel is bio-ethanol accounting for more than 90% of total biofuel usage. It is increasingly produced from sugar cane making cane a strategic crop for biofuels. Given the growing demand for "green" fuels, bio-ethanol production has been supported by energy policies in the past decade, which have consequently been accused of contributing to the global trend of rising food prices and thus jeopardising food security. However, while biofuel policies are an important driver, prices as much as food security will ultimately be determined by supply constraints of strategic crops. This paper hence investigates drivers of and constraints to sugar cane production in (the) People's Republic of China and India and shows that supply side constraints vary significantly in the two countries. (the) PRC and India both face serious limitations with regard to suitable available land for the further expansion of sugar cane production. Equally they are both faced with challenges to increasing yield output per hectare, albeit different ones. With regard to productivity, (the) PRC achieved 2.7% annual yield growth since 1997, while India has seen yield decreases of -0.1%Â p.a. over the same period. The authors conclude that cane used as a feedstock to meet the rising energy demand will come at the expense of converting fertile land for non-food purposes.