Collaborative optimization for multipath coal-fired power project transition and renewable energy power project portfolio selection considering capacity payment and CCER

Considering the intricate coupling between the multipath transition of coal-fired power projects and the portfolio selection of renewable energy power projects is essential to addressing the inherent conflicts between environmental sustainability and reliable energy supply. However, most existing literature overlook the high interdependence between these two, treating them as isolated issues, which leads to uncoordinated outcomes. To bridge this critical gap, this paper systematically examines, for the first time, how to balance the transition paths of existing coal-fired power projects with the portfolio selection of renewable projects based on their coupling effects. Additionally, external policy factors—such as capacity payment, Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER), and green certificate—that directly influence both coal-fired power projects transition and renewable energy portfolio selection are integrated into the analysis. This integrated framework aligns decision-making with real-world policy contexts and enables collaborative optimization of coal-fired power projects transition and renewable energy power projects portfolio selection. The simulation results show that: (1) collaborative optimization of coal-fired power projects multipath transition and renewable energy power projects portfolio selection can not only increase economic revenue by nearly 27 %, but also reduce CO2 emissions by nearly 61 %; (2) the incorporation of capacity payment, CCER, and green certificate not only increases the installation of renewable energy by 7.1 %, but also promotes the transition of a corresponding proportion of coal-fired power projects.