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Energy technical resilience assessment based on complex network analysis – A case study of China

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  • Su, Rui
  • Chen, Bin
  • Wang, Saige
  • Duan, Cuncun

Abstract

China's energy transformation has been accompanied by potential energy security issues. However, the influence degree and driving mechanism behind this phenomenon remain unclear. In this paper, we developed a complex network-based technical resilience assessment framework and quantified both the historical trajectory and the prospective pathway of energy technical resilience in China. We proposed to reveal the relationship between cleaner energy supply and technical resilience by defining three energy technology resilience indicators: energy robustness, energy recovery rate, and energy performance loss. The results showed a consistent decline in energy technical resilience within China, predominantly characterized by an average diminution of 6.83% in energy robustness from 2010 to 2018. Taking carbon neutrality as a target, China's energy system transformation, characterized by increasing clean energy supply, leads to a significant improvement of 7.73% in energy robustness from 2020 to 2060. Conversely, the nationally determined contribution scenario exhibited negligible changes (±0.57%) in energy robustness, while a decline of 2.21% was noted under the business as usual scenario. Furthermore, energy robustness exhibited increments of 12.07%, 2.3%, and 4.17% for every 10% rise in the share of clean energy supply during 2020–2060, demonstrating greater resilience for cleaner energy systems against disruptions, including energy import interruptions, malicious attacks, and random failures. It has been concluded that enhancing the supply of clean energy can significantly contribute to bolstering China's energy technical resilience, while simultaneously addressing climate change concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Rui & Chen, Bin & Wang, Saige & Duan, Cuncun, 2024. "Energy technical resilience assessment based on complex network analysis – A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:364:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924006147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123231
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