IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v360y2024ics0306261924001053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated Approaches in Resilient Hierarchical Load Forecasting via TCN and Optimal Valley Filling Based Demand Response Application

Author

Listed:
  • Türkoğlu, A. Selim
  • Erkmen, Burcu
  • Eren, Yavuz
  • Erdinç, Ozan
  • Küçükdemiral, İbrahim

Abstract

Considering the electricity market, data analytics paves the way for completely new strategies regarding demand and supply-side policies. In this manner, predictive analysis of the demanded power accuracy is carried out to boost profits and increase the penetration of similar demand response (DR) programs across all levels of end-user categories. Residential loads experience stiff spikes and unpredictable variations due to occupancy activities and environmental factors. To address this, we first propose a robust short-term multivariate-multistep forecasting framework that is resilient to missing or erroneous data, employing temporal convolution networks (TCNs). We then incorporate two distinct valley-filling indices to optimize the charging of electric vehicle loads according to DR requirements, showcasing the efficacy of leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance the utilization of clean energy resources. Simulation studies are conducted using real-world nodal residential loads with hourly granularity. The results demonstrate that the forecasting method is reliable for residential locations, even when dealing with highly damaged data. The case studies effectively fill the load into the valleys and minimize fluctuations in residential locations. Through the integration of emission-aware forecasting and optimization strategies, our study lays the groundwork for a comprehensive approach that not only improves economic outcomes and grid stability but also advances the imperative of reducing carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Türkoğlu, A. Selim & Erkmen, Burcu & Eren, Yavuz & Erdinç, Ozan & Küçükdemiral, İbrahim, 2024. "Integrated Approaches in Resilient Hierarchical Load Forecasting via TCN and Optimal Valley Filling Based Demand Response Application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:360:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924001053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924001053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122722?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Wenyu & Chen, Qian & Yan, Jianyong & Zhang, Shuai & Xu, Jiyuan, 2021. "A novel asynchronous deep reinforcement learning model with adaptive early forecasting method and reward incentive mechanism for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Hongcai, 2020. "Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining a deep learning model with multivariate empirical mode decomposition for hourly global horizontal irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 908-927.
    4. Huyghues-Beaufond, Nathalie & Tindemans, Simon & Falugi, Paola & Sun, Mingyang & Strbac, Goran, 2020. "Robust and automatic data cleansing method for short-term load forecasting of distribution feeders," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    7. Xiao, Xun & Mo, Huadong & Zhang, Yinan & Shan, Guangcun, 2022. "Meta-ANN – A dynamic artificial neural network refined by meta-learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    8. Ioakimidis, Christos S. & Thomas, Dimitrios & Rycerski, Pawel & Genikomsakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Peak shaving and valley filling of power consumption profile in non-residential buildings using an electric vehicle parking lot," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 148-158.
    9. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    10. Fekri, Mohammad Navid & Patel, Harsh & Grolinger, Katarina & Sharma, Vinay, 2021. "Deep learning for load forecasting with smart meter data: Online Adaptive Recurrent Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    11. Ahajjam, Mohamed Aymane & Bonilla Licea, Daniel & Ghogho, Mounir & Kobbane, Abdellatif, 2022. "Experimental investigation of variational mode decomposition and deep learning for short-term multi-horizon residential electric load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    12. Brégère, Margaux & Huard, Malo, 2022. "Online hierarchical forecasting for power consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 339-351.
    13. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    14. Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo & Edgar Gutierrez-Franco & Nicolas Clavijo-Buritica, 2022. "Machine Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eren, Yavuz & Küçükdemiral, İbrahim, 2024. "A comprehensive review on deep learning approaches for short-term load forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    2. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    3. Kaiyan Wang & Haodong Du & Jiao Wang & Rong Jia & Zhenyu Zong, 2023. "An Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Provincial Load Forecasting Based on Reduced Dimensional Clustering and Decomposition Strategies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Huang, Yanmei & Hasan, Najmul & Deng, Changrui & Bao, Yukun, 2022. "Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    5. Shi, Jiaqi & Li, Chenxi & Yan, Xiaohe, 2023. "Artificial intelligence for load forecasting: A stacking learning approach based on ensemble diversity regularization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    6. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    7. Wu, Junqi & Niu, Zhibin & Li, Xiang & Huang, Lizhen & Nielsen, Per Sieverts & Liu, Xiufeng, 2023. "Understanding multi-scale spatiotemporal energy consumption data: A visual analysis approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    8. Francesco Lo Franco & Mattia Ricco & Riccardo Mandrioli & Gabriele Grandi, 2020. "Electric Vehicle Aggregate Power Flow Prediction and Smart Charging System for Distributed Renewable Energy Self-Consumption Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-25, September.
    9. Hu, Jiaxiang & Hu, Weihao & Cao, Di & Sun, Xinwu & Chen, Jianjun & Huang, Yuehui & Chen, Zhe & Blaabjerg, Frede, 2024. "Probabilistic net load forecasting based on transformer network and Gaussian process-enabled residual modeling learning method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    10. Alexandra L’Heureux & Katarina Grolinger & Miriam A. M. Capretz, 2022. "Transformer-Based Model for Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Agga, Ali & Abbou, Ahmed & Labbadi, Moussa & El Houm, Yassine, 2021. "Short-term self consumption PV plant power production forecasts based on hybrid CNN-LSTM, ConvLSTM models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 101-112.
    12. Michel Noussan & Matteo Jarre, 2021. "Assessing Commuting Energy and Emissions Savings through Remote Working and Carpooling: Lessons from an Italian Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, November.
    13. Zhang, Yue & Zhang, Qi & Farnoosh, Arash & Chen, Siyuan & Li, Yan, 2019. "GIS-Based Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization of charging stations for electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 844-853.
    14. Mojtaba Qolipour & Ali Mostafaeipour & Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad & Hamid R Arabnia, 2019. "Prediction of wind speed using a new Grey-extreme learning machine hybrid algorithm: A case study," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(1), pages 44-62, February.
    15. Ke Yan & Xudong Wang & Yang Du & Ning Jin & Haichao Huang & Hangxia Zhou, 2018. "Multi-Step Short-Term Power Consumption Forecasting with a Hybrid Deep Learning Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    16. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    17. Raja S, Charles & Kumar N M, Vijaya & J, Senthil kumar & Nesamalar J, Jeslin Drusila, 2021. "Enhancing system reliability by optimally integrating PHEV charging station and renewable distributed generators: A Bi-Level programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    19. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    20. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:360:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924001053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.